411 
FXUS64 KMEG 050932
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND VERY
WARM WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S EACH DAY. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA FOR TODAY...BUT THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE DAY
SHIFT. PLAN TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER NOTIFICATION (FWNMEG)
STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD EJECT FROM THE BASE OF
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ARKLATEX THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. STRENGTHENING ATMOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO STORM
INTENSITY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...RESIDUAL
MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH EAST
INTO THESE LOCATIONS. PLAN TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER
FORECAST SHIFTS CAN REFINE THE DEGREE AND TYPES OF STORM THREATS
IN LATER FORECASTS. ANY STORMS THAT IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OR
BOUNDARIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE LAID OUT ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...OVERALL LOWER MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN LATER FORECASTS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
STALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE STALLED WEAK FRONT SHOULD BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. SURFACE
HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING PEAK HEATING AND WANE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SSW WINDS ABOUT 6-10
KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12-20 KTS MON MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KJBR AND KMEM.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$