National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDHUN
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDHUN
Product Timestamp: 2014-04-29 17:44 UTC
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461 FXUS64 KHUN 291744 AAB AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z TAFS && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/ ...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY... ...LARGE HAIL...FLASH FLOODING...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE... AN EXPANSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS...WITH A PARENT UPR VORT MAX SPINNING VIGOROUSLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DEEP SWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE ALSO CONTINUES...WITH 80-90 KTS ANALYZED ARND 400 MB AND HIGHER. A SHORT WAVE MAXIMUM WILL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ATOP A BURGEONING WARM SECTOR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN THIS REGION WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...AND BY 18Z LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH MLCAPES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IN THIS REGION AS YESTERDAY...VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG APPEAR TO BE WITHIN REACH DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. STORM CELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO OUR SW IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISS AND WILL SPREAD GRADUALLY EWRD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPR VORT MAX. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF ARND 70-80 KTS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AS THE MID/UPR JET EASES EWRD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING STRONG ROTATION AND SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES TODAY. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHALLOW LAYER HELICITIES MAY NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE WEST...STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WHILE CELLS WILL TEND TO BE FAIRLY FAST-MOVING...HIGH PW VALUES AND INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL GIVE RISE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SO...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WAS ISSUED EARLIER TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. LOW-LVL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE WITH LESS DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR...BUT LOWER END TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WE SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT INITIALIZE WITHIN A FEW HOURS WELL TO OUR SW AND WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON TIMING FOR OUR AREA ONCE WE SEE THIS. NEVERTHELESS...A SYNTHESIS OF MODEL ANALYSES SUGGESTS CELL DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MOVEMENT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NRN AL AROUND 1-3 PM. STORMS COULD THEN AFFECT THE HSV/DCU METRO AROUND 4-7 PM...AND IN EASTERN AREAS ARND 5-8 PM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE LOWER SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH WILL LEAD TO RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THERE AND MAY TEND TO CUT OFF OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY DURING THE EVENING. BUT...THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. RESIDENTS OF THE TN VALLEY ARE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS NOW...HAVE AN EMERGENCY PLAN IN PLACE...AND HAVE GOOD SHELTER ALREADY PLANNED IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. KDW && .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT KHSV/KMSL ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATER AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP TO THE SW. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO NRN LA...BUT WATCHING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SW IN CENTRAL MISS. TIMING FOR IMPACTS TO TAF SITES IS THUS DIFFICULT RIGHT NOW AND BASED LARGELY ON MODEL DEPICTIONS INSTEAD OF SAT/RADAR OBS. NEVERTHELESS...TSRA IMPACTS AT KMSL APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z...AND 23-00Z AT KHSV. STORMS MAY TEND TO MAINTAIN A QUASI-DISCRETE MODE AND MAY NOT LINGER TOO LONG AT ANY INDIVIDUAL LOCATION. THUS...MFVR IMPACTS MAY BE SHORT. IF A VERY HVY CELL IMPACTS A SITE...THEN CERTAINLY IFR OR VLIFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. KDW && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ALZ001>010-016. TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TNZ076-096-097. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.