853 
FXUS64 KCRP 252023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...25 TO 30 KT LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO AID IN NOCTURNAL STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...THOUGH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY. AFTER THE CLOUD
DECK BURNS OFF...TOMORROW WILL SEE TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...BECOMING
DOWNRIGHT TOASTY OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AS A DRYLINE
CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE FROM THE PHASING
OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION.
30-40 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND
MODERATE HELICITY VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND
CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE NEAR THE COAST...BUT HAVE STILL INCLUDED
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 20 POPS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...PERIOD COULD BEGIN ACTIVE WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY MCS/ MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS 
THETA E RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED 
WITH 850 TEMPS 20 DEGREES OR HIGHER...BUT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT 
MAY SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CWA. 

DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 
VERY WARM...INTO THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ABOVE 100 
DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THIS IS DEPENDENT THOUGH ON 
ANY LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD THAT COULD BE LEFTOVER FROM POTENTIAL 
MCS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  MONDAY HAS SIMILAR SETUP...BUT WITHOUT 
THE CAVEAT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE HOT TEMPERATURES BEHIND 
DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. 

TRICKY TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT TIMING AROUND NOON. 
WILL SEE SOME /THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT/ COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE 
FRONT...SO THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN 
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL IN THE 90S UNLESS TIMING SPEEDS UP. MOISTURE 
POOLING ALONG AND OFF THE COAST WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OFFSHORE AREAS TUESDAY WITH THE 
FRONT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE 
FOLLOWING FEW DAYS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS DPTS DROP TO MUCH 
MORE PLEASANT LEVELS /40S AND 50S/. ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS LATE 
THURSDAY AND WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY. 
MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY...BUT MODELS HINTING AT 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  88  73  94  71  /  10  10  20  20  10 
VICTORIA          69  87  71  88  69  /  10  10  20  30  10 
LAREDO            72  99  73 101  71  /  10  20  30  10  10 
ALICE             71  93  73  97  70  /  10  10  30  20  10 
ROCKPORT          71  81  71  82  72  /  10  10  20  30  10 
COTULLA           70  95  71  98  68  /  10  20  30  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        72  91  73  96  71  /  10  10  20  20  10 
NAVY CORPUS       71  83  73  83  72  /  10  10  20  20  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM