647 
FXUS66 KLOX 200010 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL FORM ON SUNDAY BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COASTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME WARMING TO FOLLOW THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH COOL AND WINDY 
CONDITIONS AGAIN.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THROUGH 
MONDAY...KEEPING THE WARMING TREND THAT COMMENCED TODAY GOING INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE UP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON 
SUNDAY...WITH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 
NEARER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL 
BE MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON THE ALWAYS TEMPERAMENTAL MARINE LAYER. 
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SUNDAY. BELOW 
ADVISORY BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SRN SBA COUNTY 
TONIGHT...AND OVER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INLAND SECTION ON 
MONDAY.

THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT WITH 
THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER SBA TONIGHT FUELING A HEALTHY COASTAL EDDY 
OVER LA COUNTY ON SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE TO EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS 
FORMING. HOW FAR TO THE NORTH THEY GO IF THEY DO FORM IS A TOUGH 
CALL. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THAT THE 
FORECAST IS BANKING ON KEEPING MOST OF THE STRATUS AWAY ON SUNDAY. 
WITH LESS OF THAT ON MONDAY...AND NO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER 
SBA...EXPECTING A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER BUT A LITTLE MORE STRATUS 
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A TROUGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO FORM OFF THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY 
JUST WEST OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING 
THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...WITH A RAPIDLY DRYING FRONT ZIPPING 
DOWN THE WEST COAST. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...THIS FRONT WILL NOT 
PRODUCE ANY PRECIP IN OUR AREA...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE 
THAT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOWER TO WESTERN 
SLO COUNTY ON TUESDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY A 110 KT WESTERLY JET WILL 
FUEL STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD 
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING THE NEED FOR MANY WIND 
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SRN SBA 
COUNTY...THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL 
PLUMMET WITH THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD 
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER TUESDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS AND 
COLD AIR TRUMP THE MARINE LAYER.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK 
OFFSHORE FLOW FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING 
PLENTY OF WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. EXTENDED MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OVER 
NEXT WEEKEND. AS IT IS TRACKING NOW...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE ANOTHER 
WIND PRODUCER THAN A RAIN MAKER.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0005Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z 
TAFS...ALTHO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT A FEW COASTAL AIRFIELDS. VFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. FOR 
KSMX..THERE IS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS 
DEVELOPING ABOUT 06Z AND LINGERING TIL ABOUT 12Z AS OFFSHORE FLOW 
SHOULD DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR KOXR...THERE IS 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND 
LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUD 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD. AT KLAX AND KLGB...ALTHO THERE IS 
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP 
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...THERE IS MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF 
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT 
TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL 
AIRFIELDS THRU SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSBA 
ABOUT 02Z-10Z DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY. GUSTY W 
TO SW WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON. 

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. ALTHO THERE IS 
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP 
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUN MORNING...THERE IS MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE OFF 
PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THE LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT AT 
TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE AIRFIELD 
THRU SUN EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES