317 
FXUS61 KBGM 131917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING
SHOWERS TO AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MILD TEMPS TDA WITH WARM SWLY FLOW. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED -SHRA
ACRS NRN ONEIDA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG OTRW A DRY FCST. VERY MILD
MINS TNGT. 

NXT SYSTEM APRCHS TMRW. A FEW MDLS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG A
PRE-FNTL TROF OVER CNTRL NY ARND MID DAY. IN ANY EVENT...INCRSNG
CHCS FOR SHRA TMRW AFTN WITH MAXES GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. TEMPS MAY FALL DURING THE AFTN WRN ZONES AS CLDS AND SCT
-SHRA MOVE IN. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONTINUE ON MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE/ANAFRONT
MOVS THRU ON TUE WITH WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NE ALONG IT.

TIMING OF THIS FNT ON TUE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FCST
W/RESPECT TO CHGOVER AND +RA POTNL IN THE EAST. IN GNRL 12Z RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE IS BASICALLY THRU THE CWA
BY 00Z WED...AND NAM/GFS SFC INDICATE RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LVLS WITH THE
FNT ON TUE. 

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
STORM...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING. WE COULD
SEE PL IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAY IT AS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. GIVEN A COUPLE OF VERY WARM DAYS THINK ICE POTNL
FROM NAM PROFILES IS OVERDONE. WE DID LIKE THE WWD SNOW ACCUMS
WITH POTNL FOR GNRLY 2-4 INCHES ON TUR AFTN/EVNG ACRS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NY.

MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUE NGT...WITH LAKE
CLDS LIKELY SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED MRNG IN NWLY FLOW. MUCH
COOLER WITH MAXES ONLY U30S TO L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY. 

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WED...VFR.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...