217 
FXUS62 KMHX 131722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/... 
AS OF 115 PM SUN...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THUS INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY...81-83F INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN
COAST. LASTEST HRRR AND MESOMODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
INLAND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MAY
HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA-BREEZE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO. CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER YESTERDAY WITH PWATS
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AROUND 2/3" AND WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A TYPICAL SEABREEZE PATTERN CLEARING CLOUDS FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EWD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING INCREASING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING S/SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT LATE...SO TREND SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING CONTINUES TO BRING MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FULL 
LATITUDE TROF DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN 
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE PROVIDING A 
DEEPENING MOIST SW FLOW MONDAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE SW FLOW 
ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SHUD SEE PLENTY OF SUN EARLY 
MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND (AROUND 70 
BEACHES) ON THE MILD SW FLOW BEFORE AFTERNOON INCREASING CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN. THE MILD SW FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT 
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SHARP UPPER TROF 
AND SFC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND 
EVENING. CAPE VALUES 500+ J/KG AND 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL 
SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MENTION THE 
THREAT IN UPDATED HWO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY PUT A LID 
ON HIGH TEMPS BUT MOST AREAS SHUD REACH INTO THE 70S ESPECIALLY IF 
ANY PROLONGED SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. 

WANING CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER 
AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE 
NORTH. LOWS MAY REACH NEAR 40 INLAND EARLY WED AND DESPITE PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY 
WHICH IS 15-20 DEGS BLO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT WED 
NIGHT WITH LOWS INLAND POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER 
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE 
COAST WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN 
OFFSHORE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BACKS UP TOWARD THE SE COAST. 
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 
SURGING BACK INTO THE 60S THU/FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE 
GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE LATE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEKEND COURTESY OF THE INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROF AND APPROACHING 
MID LEVEL TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/... 
AS OF 120 PM SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS 
AND SCATTERED TSTMS LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND 
GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT 
TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNING 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES SOUTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING S/SSW FLOW.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING BUT SOME TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES WINDS TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF 
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT 
PASSES THRU THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL 
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY NEARING GALE FORCE AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY 
DECREASING THRU THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...BTC/SK/DAG