592 
FXUS61 KBGM 130855
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
455 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND
WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD THUNDER MENTION FOR
THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES NOTED IN THE LAST 4
HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME WITH BULK OF THE
PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY 
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY. 
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON 
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL. 

WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR. 
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF 
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.

GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES 
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR 
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH 
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR 
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH 
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z 
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG 
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO 
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS 
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING 
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG 
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING 
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION. 

FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED 
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE 
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS 
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING 
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT 
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN 
AREAS OF SERN ZONES. 

FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY 
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY 
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL 
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG 
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND 
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV 
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO 
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z 
WED. 

TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO 
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN 
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A 
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY 
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET BUT BELOW NORMAL PERIOD SETTING UP EARLY ON AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 40S
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE
BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VLY WITH THIS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WELL WEST OF OUR FCST AREA. THAT
SAID...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WOUND-UP CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS ONE
CAN IMAGINE THE FORMER OFFERS A WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE LATTER.
BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES AND DISTANCE OUT...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL
LEAD TO LGT SHWR ACTIVITY AT SYR AND RME THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE AFTER 14/15Z. UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING VFR
CONDITIONS UNDER APPROACHING SHWRS AND ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. AS FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS LATER TODAY UNDER
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY EARLY
EVENING WITH GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

WED...VFR.

THURS...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 


.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...