706 
FXUS64 KMEG 121132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 DEGREES OF COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE RESULTING IN
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE SAME
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATE MORNING WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES.

CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE RESULT OF A
TROUGH DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN
WEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL CHANGE RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG AND PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL DEW POINTS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NEAR 60 AND THE LLJ LOOKS
A BIT STRONGER...UP TO ABOUT 50 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL/DEVELOPMENT OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMAL...AS DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS LOOK MORE SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST ARKANSAS.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD SEVERE WORDING TO THE HWO...BUT
WILL EXPAND THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM AREA TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIMITING
THE INTENSITY OF STORMS ESPECIALLY IN EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDDAY. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.  

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK COOL AND DRY. MORNING LOWS TUESDAY WILL
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDSOUTH
WITH MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SIMILAR LOWS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY BUT WARM WELL INTO THE
60S WEDNESDAY. 

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
SPRING STORM IS IN THE WORKS WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE ZONES AND SEE
HOW THE NEXT MODEL RUNS PAN OUT. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$