914 
FXUS64 KMEG 091742
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES.

BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT HIGHS TO HIT 80
IN MEMPHIS AND IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ON THURSDAY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. A FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH
OF THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SKIRTING EXTREME
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 POPS. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP FOR THAT
REASON.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT STRATUS TO INVADE THE MIDSOUTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL FOR EASTERN AREAS
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND RELAXING TO 4 TO 6 KTS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST
15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AT ALL SITES.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$