270 
FNUS72 KMLB 091052
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR UCF BURN...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORID
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
652 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 09. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BURN
SITE THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH 
VALUES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 
FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 
15 MPH WHEN THESE MIN RH VALUES OCCUR...BUT WITH THE RAINFALL THAT 
OCCURRED TODAY...ERC VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RED FLAG 
CONDITIONS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE 
                   MORNING. 
MAX TEMPERATURE....AROUND 77. 
MIN HUMIDITY.......30 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT).......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. 
CHANCE OF PCPN.....30 PERCENT. 
LAL................1. 
MIXING HEIGHT......1200-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4600 FT AGL 
                   LATE IN THE MORNING. 
TRANSPORT WINDS....NORTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH. 
DISPERSION INDEX...21 INCREASING TO 65 IN THE AFTERNOON. 
LVORI..............3. 

TIME (EDT)         10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 
SKY (%)............PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR 
WEATHER COV........CHC                                             
WEATHER TYPE.......RW                                              
TEMP...............67  71  74  77  77  77  76  75  72  70  68  67  
RH.................48  40  36  31  30  30  31  32  36  40  44  47  
20 FT WIND DIR.....W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   
20 FT WIND SPD.....13  14  14  14  14  14  13  12  10  9   9   8   
20 FT WIND GUST....20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15      10  10  10  


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER........MOSTLY CLEAR. 
MIN TEMPERATURE....AROUND 56. 
MAX HUMIDITY.......79 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT).......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING 
                   BECOMING LIGHT. 
CHANCE OF PCPN.....10 PERCENT. 
LAL................1. 
MIXING HEIGHT......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1800 FT AGL EARLY 
                   IN THE EVENING. 
TRANSPORT WINDS....NORTH 7 TO 15 MPH. 
DISPERSION INDEX...56 DECREASING TO 5 AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
LVORI..............3. 


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER........MOSTLY SUNNY. 
MAX TEMPERATURE....AROUND 80. 
MIN HUMIDITY.......32 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT).......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN 
                   THE MORNING. 
CHANCE OF PCPN.....0 PERCENT. 
LAL................1. 
MIXING HEIGHT......200-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL 
                   LATE IN THE MORNING. 
TRANSPORT WINDS....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH. 
DISPERSION INDEX...33 INCREASING TO 45 IN THE AFTERNOON. 
LVORI..............5. 

$$

FORECASTER...BRAGAW
REQUESTED BY...RAY JARRETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140409.UCFBU.01/MLB