380 
FXUS65 KMSO 082037
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2014

...GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will break down this afternoon and evening, ahead of
a cold front moving across the Northern Rockies overnight tonight.
Wind gusts will increase this afternoon through sunset. As the
cold front approaches north central Idaho this evening, there is a
small chance of lightning strikes. Brief rainfall is likely near
the cold front. Mountain passes may receive some brief snowfall,
however expectation of accumulations is low. Wind gusts will
re-intensify 25-35 mph for open areas during the day on Wednesday.
High- profile vehicles may experience rough travel, while boaters
will experience increased wave activity on Flathead Lake during
this time.

Breezy conditions are anticipated to redevelop to a lesser extent
during Thursday daytime, however cloud cover will lessen from
Wednesday.

Temperatures will rebound back into the 60s for much of the region
Thursday and Friday ahead of the next system. A backdoor cold
front will drop south out of Canada and move west over the
Continental Divide Saturday, and move southwest through western
Montana during the day and evening. There are some differences in
strength of the front with operational models. The ECWMF is
currently the outlier from other models with the strongest and
coldest solutions, most forecast changes were based on the GFS
with a weaker solution. However, mountain pass snow and breezy east
winds through the favored gaps and canyons can be expected. At
this time, snow accumulations over mountain passes along the Divide
are expected to be light, which will be closely watched, due to
the uncertainty on how strong the front is. Most valley locations
should remain warm enough for all rain, however don't be surprised
to see a few flakes mixed in, especially in northwest Montana.
Higher elevated valleys such as the Butte area could see a light
dusting on grassy areas.

The up and down weather conditions will continue for the start of
next week, with another ridge building over the Northern Rockies
allowing spring conditions to return.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will break down this afternoon and
evening, ahead of a cold front overnight tonight. West and
southwest wind gusts to 25 knots are possible for KGPI, KMSO, and
KBTM through 09/0300Z. Thereafter, most wind gusts will subside,
however clouds and rain showers will increase. Rainfall should be
brief and is unlikely to decrease ceilings or visibility by much.
Occasional terrain obscurations possible. After 09/1800Z, rain
showers are expected to decrease in coverage, however wind gusts
are likely to re- intensify 20-30 knots for all area air
terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Zumpfe/Robinson
Aviation...Zumpfe

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