997 
FXUS62 KFFC 071539
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014


.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO WATCH AREA TO REMOVE COUNTIES NO
LONGER IN THE THREAT OF A TORNADO. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...AND BEST LINE OF CONVECTION STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER MACON AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN...WITH NUMEROUS GAGES IN THE
ATL METRO AREA RISING TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 36-HOURS HAVE BEEN 3-3.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL...LINE OF
CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PROGRESSIVELY LOOKING
LESS ROBUST IN OUR CWA. MODELS INDICATING BEST CO-LOCATED SHEAR AND
CAPE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AND
HAVE NOTICED WEAK ROTATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE.

31

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/ 

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/ 

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK 
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE 
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE 
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA 
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED 
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR 
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS 
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES 
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM 
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED 
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING 
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA 
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY 
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50 
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE 
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.

THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1 
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH 
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE 
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST 
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE 
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL 
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL 
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF 
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS. 

UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT 
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED 
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT 
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM 
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE 
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE 
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD 
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF 
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY 
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER 
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO 
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER 
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY LOW END IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER NEAR 18Z. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH AREA OF
PRECIP BUT COULD BE LOWER WITH STORMS. WINDS INITIALLY NE BEHIND
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FOR NORTHERN SITES THEN SWING MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW SHIFT FOR KATL AROUND
15-16Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING SOME FROM NW AFTER 18-20Z THOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR NEAR 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... 
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIG AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  48  67  45 / 100  50  20  40 
ATLANTA         68  48  65  48 / 100  40  40  50 
BLAIRSVILLE     60  42  62  42 / 100  40  40  50 
CARTERSVILLE    66  45  64  45 /  80  40  40  50 
COLUMBUS        71  50  67  46 / 100  40  20  40 
GAINESVILLE     61  47  64  48 / 100  40  40  50 
MACON           72  51  69  45 / 100  50  20  40 
ROME            66  44  65  45 /  60  20  40  50 
PEACHTREE CITY  69  46  66  42 / 100  40  30  40 
VIDALIA         76  57  70  51 / 100  70  30  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31