006 
FXUS61 KRLX 071036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH...THROUGH OHIO THIS EVENING.
ASSOCIATED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WITH GUSTY WINDS. COOLER WITH LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. DRIER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF WEATHER TO KEEP THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT BUSY. OVERALL WIND 
THREAT INCREASING WHILE WATER/FLOOD THREAT DECREASING...BUT NOT 
TOTALLY GONE.

LOW PRESSURE IN MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z SHOULD DEEPEN ABOUT 10 MBS IN 12 
HOURS REACHING INTO OHIO BY 00Z TUESDAY.  THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN THE 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.  JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING 
UNFOLDS TODAY.

RAIN SHIELD MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING.  TRIED TO PLAY UP THE EASTERN 
SLOPES MORE THAN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS WITH THIS MORNING RAIN...NOT 
IN TERMS OF POP...BUT AMOUNTS.  COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF RAIN BY 12Z 
IN PORTIONS OF DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN...THEN HAVE HALF INCH IN 
POCAHONTAS 11Z TO 17Z.  WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY 
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS.

THE 06Z NAM IS FINALLY COMING IN LINE WITH OUR THINKING THE PAST FEW 
DAYS...IN THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOP MOVING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES 
BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  PREVIOUS NAM SOLUTIONS 
WERE STILL TRYING TO HIT THE WESTERN LOWLANDS HARDER WITH RAIN 
AMOUNTS.
      
STILL...WITH THE WET TOP SOIL AND THE LACK OF SPRING 
VEGETATION...CAN NOT TOTALLY LET OUR GUARD DOWN WITH THIS RAIN 
EVENT.  NEED TO MONITOR RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO THIS 
EVENING.  ACTUALLY...THINK THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO DRY.
WOULD START GETTING CONCERNED IF 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OCCUR.

AFTER ABOUT 19Z...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 
20 THSD FT CAN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS 
CONVECTION COULD ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS FROM THE FAST FLOW ALOFT.  
BEST INSTABILITY WOULD BE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF.  SO COULD NOT RULE OUT A 
SEVERE LOW TOP STORM.   

HARD TO FIGURE HOW QUICKLY THE CEILINGS LOWER OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD 
AIR ADVECTION.  NAM WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 CELSIUS COLDER AT 850 MB AT 12Z 
TUESDAY THAN GFS AND ECMWF.  YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FLAKE BY THE 
PREDAWN HOURS AOA 3500 FEET IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...TRIED TO HOLD DOWN THE UPSLOPE AREA TEMPERATURE 
THIS MORNING...INCLUDING BKW...IN THE RAIN.  SNOWSHOE MAY ACTUALLY 
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING BEFORE CREEPING BACK UP.

LIKEWISE...WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING...HAVE 
TEMPERATURES STAYING UP IN THOSE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING 
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...UNTIL COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE 
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES AS 
SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS CAUGHT UP IN NORTHERN STREAM SWINGS THROUGH 
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT LESS MOISTURE WILL BE 
PRESENT SO CARRYING CHC POPS AS DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH. FOR 
REMAINDER OF PERIOD...ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL UNDER GO A DRYING 
TREND. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THIS CAA 
REGIME INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. USED 
BLENDED TEMPS WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY 
WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE FOR REMAINDER OF 
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CROSSING OF A WEAK COLD 
FRONT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...POSSIBLY 
HANGING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 
THIS WILL REPRESENT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE 
EXTENDED.

ON THE FRONT END WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DEPARTING...BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY.
LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWLANDS 60S/MOUNTAINS
ON SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT LIES BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 10Z MONDAY...RAIN SPREADING NORTH WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.  
HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINS FIGURED KBKW VICINITY INTO GREENBRIER 
VALLEY THIS MORNING.  

STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

WITH UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS...HAVE IFR DEVELOPING ALONG EASTERN 
SLOPES INCLUDING BKW VCNTY ON NORTH INTO UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG EASTERN SLOPES FIGURED FOR 10Z TO 14Z.

WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE CONDITIONS ONLY LOWERING TO MVFR IN THE 
RAIN WITH VSBY 4 TO 5 MILES AND CEILINGS 25 TO 35 HUNDRED FT.

AFTER 16Z...HAVE DRY SLOT WORKING UP INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES...SO 
RAIN SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY SHOWERS.  AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OHIO 
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NARROW CAPE DOES DEVELOP TO ITS EAST.  
CAN NOT RULE OUT A GUSTY SHOWER OR LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM IN THE 
WESTERN LOWLANDS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY.    
 
HARD TO DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY LOWER CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THE LOW 
PRESSURE SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY.  CONFIDENCE
ONLY MEDIUM.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT OVC IN LOWLANDS 06Z TO 12Z 
AND 1 TO 2 THSD FT IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN 
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING DRY SLOT FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE 
AFTERNOON...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCLUDED 
FRONT COULD VARY BY A FEW HOURS.
 
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE OVER HIGH WV MOUNTAINS MAY LINGER INTO 15Z TUESDAY IN 
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB