AFOS product AFDLKN
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Product Timestamp: 2014-04-01 16:45 UTC

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FXUS65 KLKN 011645
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
945 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON THURSDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.

&&

.UPDATE...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELKO AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES, BUT KEPT IT UP FOR ZONE 031 (NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY).
STRONG DRY SLOT HAS INVADED MUCH OF NEVADA, WITH EARLY APRIL
SUNSHINE MAKING QUICK WORK OF ANY SNOW OR SLUSH ON ROADWAYS.
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS, SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY THERE A BIT LONGER.
WEBCAM NEAR JACKPOT ON U.S. HIGHWAY 93 SHOWS SNOW IS MELTING ON
THE HIGHWAY AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING, AND THAT ADVISORY MAY BE
DROPPED SOON.

PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP US EASILY GET TO OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 36 DEGREES, AT WHICH POINT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OF SNOW/SNOW PELLETS WILL REDEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS
SUBSTANTIAL WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING EXPECTED. ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN
WET, BUT VISIBILITY WILL BE SHARPLY REDUCED AND VARIABLE AROUND
THESE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. 

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 731 AM / 

SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON THURSDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.

UPDATE...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LANDER, EUREKA
AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS MEANINGFUL SNOW HAS ENDED. INTENSE
FRONTOGENETIC SNOWBAND THAT PRODUCED 2-5 INCHES FROM ELKO TO
LAMOILLE HAS NOW PIVOTED INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS EXPECTED.
WEBCAM AT JACKPOT SHOWS U.S. HIGHWAY 93 REMAINS SNOW COVERED AND 
TREACHEROUS. WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CONTINUE FOR ELKO 
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING, TO ACCOUNT 
FOR HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS ABOVE 5500 FT. EARLY APRIL INSOLATION WILL 
MAKE SHORT WORK OF THAT, AND EXPECT THE ADVISORY FOR ELKO COUNTY CAN 
BE DROPPED AROUND 9 AM. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING 
THROUGH WHITE PINE COUNTY, WITH ELY REPORTING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 
MILE RECENTLY. SPOTTER IN ELY JUST REPORTED A QUICK 2.7 INCHES. DRY 
AIR ADVECTION WILL SHUT DOWN SNOW PRODUCTION THERE SHORTLY OVER THE 
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF SNOW AND/OR SNOW PELLETS (GRAUPEL) EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AS APRIL SUNSHINE
INTERACTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 

TURNER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 323 AM / 

SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW IT PRODUCES FALLING THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM FROM THE PACIFIC
CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS...IT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF
EXPECTATIONS INTENSITY (AND SNOWFALL) WISE...SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY END UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES...BUT HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES AS THIS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR A SOMEWHAT MESSY MORNING COMMUTE. WITH EXPECTED FASTER STORM
MOTION APPEARING TO PAN OUT...ENDED WESTERN STRIPE OF ADVISORIES
AT 8AM...AND ITS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BE DONE
THAT EARLY ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FGEN BAND IS RACING NORTH AND EAST. SNOW WILL STILL LINGER
LONGEST IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...BUT THE ADVISORY THERE MAY BE
ABLE TO BE CANCELLED BY THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STILL EXPECT THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTH WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FGEN FORCING SLOWS DOWN LATER ON. AFTER THE FGEN BAND
CLEARS THE AREA...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING TOWARD US WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO DECIDED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CHILLY
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EVEN COOLER THAN SUNDAY MOST LIKELY. A
STIFF BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...A RATHER UNPLEASANT APRIL FOOLS GAG FROM MOTHER
NATURE.

TONIGHT THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT FORCING
WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN ONE VORT MAX (THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING'S SYSTEM) TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...SO MIDDLE PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO GET PRETTY NIPPY. AS THE PIECE OF ENERGY TO THE NORTH
STARTS TO SPIN SOME MORE VORTICITY TOWARDS US LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT.

TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF US ON WEDNESDAY...SO WHILE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD AGAIN BE COMMON WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD NEW SNOWFALL
AFTER EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY HOWEVER.
SOME INDICATIONS OF THUNDER AGAIN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT
DECIDED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW TODAY PANS OUT IN THAT DEPARTMENT
BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER FOR TOMORROW.

RIDGE FINALLY STARTS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE PRETTY CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT BY
THURSDAY SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IN WESTERN AREAS
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE HORIZON. RCM

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A
PROGRESSIVE ONE. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPAWN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THEN A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMISING TO
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM MODEL IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER LANDER COUNTY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE GFS SHOWS
SOME MOISTURE INFLUX BY DAWN OVER WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. BUT FOR
ALL INTENT AND PURPOSE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DRY PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO MODERATE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
EXITING RIDGE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...A COLD FRONT IS
TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ELKO AND SPRING CREEK AREAS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION FOCUSED MORE ON THE 5500 FEET
LEVEL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BE
AMPLIFYING. IT APPEARS THAT NORTHEAST NEVADA MAY HAVE LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE DIRTY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY THE MEAN
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIONED CLOSER TO
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...YIELDING DRIER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SNOW SHOWERS. GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE AT KWMC KEKO AND KELY. CIGS
AND VIS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN 
ELKO COUNTY. 

&&

$$

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