AFOS product AFDABQ
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Product Timestamp: 2014-04-01 05:20 UTC

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FXUS65 KABQ 010520 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
FROM 16Z ONWARD TUE MORNING. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR HIGHER
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL VIZ DROPS DUE TO BLOWING DUST...COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE LEFT THESE OUT OF TAFS THIS ROUND.
ALOFT...LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER NEVADA BY 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. EXCEPT FOR BLOWING DUST...VFR CIGS AND VIZ
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BREAK IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG SOUTHWEST RETURN TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN ALL AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. A
WEAKER PACIFIC STORM IS ON TRACK FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SPOT SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING JUST WEST OF
THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER NOW STARTING TO BREAK/SHEAR OFF. THIS
SHORT- WAVE/VORT LOBE FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TONIGHT AND PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WIND AT
700 MB WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NM THIS EVENING AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. SUSPECT
THAT VALLEYS AND BASIN BOTTOMS WILL HAVE DECOUPLED AND THAT THE
WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONG WINDS
SHOULD MIX DOWNWARD AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY. ISSUED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD OUT ONTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND RATON MESA. GIVEN THAT THE PEAKS WILL BE IN THE 65KT
WIND SPEED AND DOWNSLOPING AND FUNNELING EFFECTS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE SANDIAS...ELECTED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THESE AREAS.

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS FROM SIERRA BLANCA EASTWARD TO ALTO...RUIDOSO
AND THE SIERRA BLANCA AIRPORT AREAS EXISTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS AT 700 MB INCREASE TO 50 KTS OR SO
AROUND 6Z WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING THAT ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY. TEMPS AT 700 MB PLENTY COLD FOR SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT
6K FT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ABOVE ABOUT 7K FT. BACKDOOR SURGE
WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST TO THE RATON/BARTLETT MESA AND NE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY EVENING.

A WELCOMED BREAK IN THE STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS RETURN TO MOST
AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THIS TIME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
TO VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO NWLY AND STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER CENTRAL TX. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THIS TRANSITION...KEEPING MONDAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER
THAN THE GFS. AT ANY RATE...LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES APPEAR ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINALLY CRITICAL REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 
HIGHLANDS/NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR 
TODAY STILL LOOK GOOD ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER 
ACROSS THE EAST...THUS THE EARLY ENDING TIME FOR THE RED FLAG 
WARNING.  THE FOCUS EXPANDS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. 
UPGRADED THE WATCH TO WARNING FOR ZONE 102...MAINLY THE UPPER RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED CLOSELY AT ZONE 109 OR THE WEST CENTRAL 
HIGHLANDS BUT DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF ISSUING A WATCH. HAINES VALUES 
LOOK TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 
MODELS HAVE HELD STRONG ON THIS. STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY IS 
FORECASTED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WX 
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. HAINES VALUES ARE MARGINAL 
BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES. 

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP ACROSS 
THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES OVER 
THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS 
BUT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY 
LOW HUMIDITY AND HAINES 5 TO 6 VALUES WILL IMPACT THE EAST.  SKIES 
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SMATTERING OF CIRRUS FLOWING IN FROM THE 
WEST. 

AS FAR AS TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY. A VERY STRONG 
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND OVERLAY 
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWERED DEWPOINTS A 
LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH RECOVERIES 
WILL BE PRETTY POOR ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLAND AREAS AS WELL AS 
MIDSLOPES. A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS STILL FORECASTED AND 
EXPECT HIGHER RECOVERIES BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
WARMER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS BUT COOL ACROSS THE 
EAST. ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TONIGHT. 

WINDS WILL PICK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY. 
ANOTHER SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CASE ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO 
BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE WITHIN THE MID LEVELS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS 
OBSERVED ON SUNDAY. A THICKER BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY 
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER BAND OF MID TO HIGH 
CLOUDS SHOULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO BUT SUSPECT A FAIR BIT 
OF SUNSHINE WILL REACH THE GROUND. THIS IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE 
COMPARED TO SUNDAY/S EVENT...BOTTOMLINE...MORE SUNSHINE WHICH MEANS 
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. HAINES 5 TO 6 VALUES 
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS 
WOULD JIVE WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EASTERN 
PLAINS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH RIDGES AND AREAS TO 
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOW TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WITH 
SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE 
VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. A REAL SOLID EARLY SPRING FIRE EVENT. 

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND 
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT POOR TO VERY POOR RECOVERIES WOULD REMAIN 
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE EASTERN 
PLAINS. MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL WIND FLOW DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN AREAS SO FUSSED 
WITH THE WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. 

THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND 
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY  
AREAWIDE. HUMIDITY VALUES IMPROVE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. THERE 
IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE DEWPOINTS FOR WEDNESDAY. NAM IS 
DRIER ACROSS THE WEST THAN THE GFS BUT FIGURE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
WOULD COME IN SO HEDGED TOWARDS THE GFS. SOME MEASURABLE 
PRECIPITATION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE NORTHWEST THIRD. 
HAINES VALUES ARE LOWER OVERALL BUT TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN POSITIVE 
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO. NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL 
ELSEWHERE. DECIDED TO HOIST A WATCH FOR ZONES 104 AND 108 OR THE 
EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY HOWEVER WOULD IMPACT 
PORTIONS OF ZONE 106/107 AND 103. 

TROUGH PASSAGE STILL EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND 
HIGHER HUMIDITY WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THE NORTHERN 
TIER HAS A GOOD SHOT OF SOME WETTING MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH 
PASSAGE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WOULD BE ON THE DRIER AND 
WINDIER SIDE. DOESNT APPEAR THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE 
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS BUT STRONG WIND AND LOW 
HUMIDITY COULD BE PREVALENT THERE. STABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE 
LIMITER. 

DRIER FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE 
PRETTY DECENT ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING. UNSETTLED WEATHER 
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH 
PASSAGE BUT ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL THAN GFS. 
WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT...ECMWF WAS INITIALLY MORE BULLISH THAN GFS 
BUT THEN THEY FLIPPED FLOPPED SOLUTIONS. THUS...A DRIER BUT COOLER 
AND UNSETTLED SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES...NMZ102>104-106>108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES...NMZ501>512-516>526-530>540.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-108.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>529.

&&

$$

40