964 
FXUS61 KBGM 300357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1157 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES HAS
CAUSED RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE THE RAIN TO BECOME A WINTRY MIX IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS OF NEW
YORK TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1150 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED WESTWARD DUE TO UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN
ALREADY FALLING IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES
REGIONS...AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MODERATE RAINFALL HEADING INTO THE
AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM AXIS
IS FARTHER WEST THAN WAS EARLIER EXPECTED. IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE STRONG RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.
 
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO TIMING OF SOME OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF PRECIP
TYPE...INCLUDING STARTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY NOW
INSTEAD OF WAITING TO 06Z. ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY RAIN SO FAR...BUT
WESTERN-NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF STEUBEN AND YATES COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN MIXING OVER TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN. WE HAVE
HAD A REPORT OF LIGHT ICING IN ALMOND NY FOR EXAMPLE.
ALSO...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. DANSVILLE OBS JUST OUTSIDE STEUBEN COUNTY
WAS GETTING BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VERY MESSY COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO INFILTRATE THE CWA. TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT UNTIL SFC TEMPS START TO FALL SHORTLY
AFTER. COLDER AIR WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SITUATION WILL THEN BECOME ONE CONGLOMERATE
MESS. AS THE CAA PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST... RAIN WILL
TURN INTO A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY SLEET... FREEZING RAIN... AND
SNOW. RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO WINTRY MIX FIRST OVER THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MUCH OF CENTRAL NY
WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT BECAUSE COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF ICE AS WELL.THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
LOWER VALLEYS SEEING ICE ACCUMULATIONS EITHER.

OVER NORTHEAST PA... EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF ADVISORY ATTM. PA MAY SEE A WINTRY MIX LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP LINGERS AS EXPECTED. 

THE STORM WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY
AIR WILL OVERCOME THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.


FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
500 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOISTURE MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MIGHT BE A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT STORM APPEARS TO
TREND SLOWER WITH EACH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUN... THUS A WINTRY MIX
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT TO START OFF THE LONG TERM WITH
JUST CHC FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS EAST OF I-81, THEN
EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH RAIN DRG THE AFTN WHEN PCPN PULLS EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WL TAKE HOLD MON NGT AND TUE WITH S/WV RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR TUE. H5 HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NR 560DM WITH
POSSIBLY WARMEST TEMPS THUS FAR FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. H8 TEMPS
DRG THE DAY WL WARM TO NR +9C, YIELDING HIGHS CLOSE TO 60F. 

WK CDFNT WL MV THRU WED MRNG KNOCKING H8 TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ON WED ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S, WHICH IS
STILL ABV NORMAL VALUES. MAIN WV WL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA WITH
BEST FRCG ACRS NRN ZONES, THUS WL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE WITH
SLGT/LOCHC POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW TUE NGT. 

HIPRES WL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN THRU THUR MRNG WITH NEXT UL TROF
APPCHG FM THE WEST WITH CHC RAIN THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK LKLY TO STAY AT TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN HAS MOVED
NORTH AHEAD OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM IN VIRGINIA. ALL SITES
SHOULD FALL TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN THERE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT AT VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR WITH
CIGS GOING TO MVFR AT ELM AND AVP. ITH AND BGM SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS AND AT TIMES FALLING BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
AROUND 12Z FREEZING RAIN, SNOW, AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE IN NY
EXCEPT BGM.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AROUND
12Z AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...LINGERING LOW CIGS AND FOG IN MIXED PRECIP.

MON...IMPROVING TO VFR.  

MON NGT THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR.

THUR...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 PM SATURDAY...
THE SITUATION DISCUSSED BELOW STILL APPLIES. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CONTINUING YET DIMINISHING
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

3 PM FRIDAY...
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE SPREAD ACROSS THE
UPPER DELAWARE AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASINS. SOME
LINGERING SNOW MELTING OUT OF THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL RUN OFF.

RIVER FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTS SEVERAL FOOT RISES TO NEAR BANKFULL
ON AREA RIVERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. FLOOD STAGE MAY BE
EXCEEDED AT A FEW POINTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN AND DELAWARE BASIN
HEADWATERS. SMALLER STREAMS...STORM DRAINS AND STREET FLOODING WILL
BE HIGHLY POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLS IN 6
HOURS OR LESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. RIVER FORECASTS MAY SIGNIFICANTLY
CHANGE DUE TO CHANGES IN RAINFALL FORECASTS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ036-037-
     044-045.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR NYZ046-055>057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ015>018-022>025.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...