239 
FXUS64 KMAF 282352
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
652 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will move through TAF sites overnight resulting in a
surface wind shift to the northeast. The development of a surface
trough on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains will result in
surface winds becoming southeasterly Saturday afternoon across the area.
VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the 
upper trough has cleared West Texas/SE NM w/out much fanfare, 
w/latest sfc analysis showing the associated cold front just NE of 
the Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  W-NW flow at the sfc and afternoon 
mixing have pushed the dryline well east of the area.  Red Flag 
conditions are ongoing in the Lwr Trans Pecos, but these should 
abate by 00Z.

Otherwise, a generally warm, dry, and windy week is in store for 
West Texas/SE NM.  Cold front will backdoor into the area after 
sunset, bringing temps down to around normal Saturday, and then 
temps rebound to well-above normal Sunday as a weak upper ridge 
moves thru, leaving W-SW flow aloft over the region beginning Sunday 
afternoon.  This will reintroduce potential critical fire wx 
conditions for much of next week, mainly NW zones (see fire wx 
discussion below).  Tuesday night, models develop a fairly sharp 
dryline from KLES-KFST-K6R6 ahead of an approaching upper trough,  
and hint at a dryline event as a shortwave moves thru SW flow 
aloft.  This looks to be the best shot at convection all week.  
Upper trough will pass north of the region Thursday, and 
Wednesday/Thursday look to be windy as the trough approaches.  
Trough will drop a cold front into the area and take temps to 
at or below normal Thursday afternoon/Friday.  

FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are currently ongoing across the lower elevations
of the Trans Pecos and will continue the remainder of the afternoon. 
Conditions will improve just before sunset as winds diminish and 
rh/s begin to increase with the onset of nocturnal cooling. A cold
front will move through the area tonight and overnight rh recovery 
will be fair to good except poor in the highway 54 corridor and
Big Bend. Slightly cooler and milder and more moist southeast flow 
will result in improving conditions Saturday with generally fair
to good recovery Sunday morning. On Sunday westerly flow aloft
will induce a surface trough across the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico border. Behind this surface trough 20 foot winds will 
increase and rh/s decrease significantly. Near critical to critical 
fire weather conditions look possible Sunday afternoon across the
Guadalupe Mountains and western sections of the southeast New Mexico 
Plains Zone 115 and including the Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor. 
Later shifts will monitor for possible watches or warnings for these 
areas Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper 
     Trans Pecos...Terrell...Ward.


&&

$$

03