352 
FXUS62 KCAE 282351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR 
LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
STRETCHING TO THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ALONG THE GULF WHICH WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY 
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION 
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 
70S ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. FURTHER WEST...CLOUD COVER 
AND SHOWERS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORT
CONTINUED HIGH POPS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED TOWARD 
DAYBREAK AND FORECAST LI VALUES REMAIN POSITIVE UNTIL SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ONLY ISOLATED. THE 
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER DUE TO CLOUDINESS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. THE NAM INDICATES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE MODELS WERE MORE CONSISTENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS...SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARD LATE
MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH MORE
SPEED SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40
KNOTS. THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH LIS AROUND -3 WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS ALL OF THE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND NEAR/JUST ABOVE FOR POPS. CONTINUED
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT DECREASING
POPS FROM W TO E SATURDAY EVENING AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED FROST
AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 
TAF PERIOD SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH 02Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. STILL COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 16Z SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS 
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN 
AREA SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$