799 
FXUS63 KJKL 282022
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTH AND EAST PROGRESS AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER TX IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO MS RIVER VALLEY AND ENTER THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN TN BY DAWN ON
SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE SFC LOW AT
THAT POINT. THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 995 MB PER THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z GFS AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND REACH THE DELMARVA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES CAPPING OFF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
FROM BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
FOR EXTENSIVE CU AND STRATOCU AND SOME SHOWERS. THESE FEW SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP NEAR THE STALLING BOUNDARY AS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAD SUGGESTED. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BEFORE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SFC WAVE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN
INTO THE REGION BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE NAM AND 9Z AND
15Z SREF WERE IN THE LIKELY TO CAT RANGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION. PERSISTENCE AND ISC COLLABORATION LED TO CATEGORICAL POPS
LATE IN ALL BUT THE BIG SANDY REGION. QPF TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER AND
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WEST OF THE
ANTICIPATED SFC LOW TRACK.

AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO WV THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON SOME COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE WRAPPED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. A BAND OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KY BY THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES LINGER INTO SAT AM...SO AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST IN THE AM
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP OFF DURING SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHEST TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS... FURTHER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SAT EVENING INTO WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. THE NON NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME DECENT QPF...WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE GRADUALLY MOVES
TOWARD ONE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE VA LINE AND THEN INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...POSSIBLY BEFORE THE SHOWER CHANCES END. THE COLLING
WOULD COME FROM A COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION...COOLING FROM LIFT
AND SOME WETBULBING. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AT
NIGHT...AND ANY SNOW GENERALLY FALLING AT NIGHT AS WELL SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET MORE THAN
A DUSTING... IF THAT FROM THIS. HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY RIDGES AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE. AMOUNTS AT
THESE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH WITH THE TOP OF BLACK
MTN OR PINE MTN AND PERHAPS THE FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY GETTING
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES. 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT. ON SUNDAY THE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
VIRGINIA. AT THE SURFACE...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD SHOULD BE 
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND THE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING. 
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT 
SYSTEM WILL START MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL START DIGGING IN OVER THE WEST 
COAST. THIS WILL TEND THE KEEP THE FRONT FAIR STATIONARY NEAR 
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND 
IT WILL RESULT MOSTLY IN CLOUDS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY 
AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH 
OUT WEST CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA...THE FRONT WILL DEFINITELY BE TO 
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IT WILL KEEP EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WARM 
SECTOR. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE 
AREA AS WAVE DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND 
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM UNSTABLE 
AIR OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL ALLOW SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
TO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE MODELS ARE 
DIFFERING...SO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT COULD CHANGE 6-18 HOURS BY 
THE TIME IT GETS HERE. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ADJUSTED THE MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE NEW 
ECMWF. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO STALL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AS THE
FIRST SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPART AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS NEXT SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT. SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A WHILE OVER THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...JUST ABOVE THE MVFR
VFR BREAK IN LOCATIONS THAT DO IMPROVE TO VFR. THIS NEXT LOW WILL
BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA AS WELL
AS ANOTHER LOWERING OF CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN 8Z AND 14Z.
THIS WILL BE AFTER


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JP