756 
FXUS64 KAMA 281718 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 12KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AT
KDHT...KGUY AND KAMA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ 

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT. ALSO INSERTED MENTION OF SPRINKLES INTO THE ZONES
AS RADAR IMAGES SHOW STRONGER ECHOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDOW FOR THESE SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY SHORT AS
IT HAS TAKEN FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TO
GET PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES JUST PRIOR TO MIDDAY AND THUS BRING AN END TO ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES.  

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ 

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR
BELOW 13 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME VIRGA SHOWERS COULD GET CLOSE TO KDHT 21Z-00Z, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND. IF ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS DOES DEVELOP AND IMPACT KDHT DIRECTLY, WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
GUST UP TO 35 KT.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE'S GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS THIS MORNING. WE'LL BE POSITIVE AND
START WITH THE GOOD NEWS. IT SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE ECHOES WE'VE SEEN ON
RADAR THIS MORNING ARE NOTHING BUT VIRGA SHOWERS. IT MAKES YOU WONDER
IF OUR ELEVATION WAS ABOUT 8,000 FEET HIGHER, HOW MUCH MORE ANNUAL
RAINFALL WOULD THIS AREA AVERAGE? ANYWAY, THESE VIRGA SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING, BUT MORE HIGH-BASED
VIRGA SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE'VE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT THERE COULD SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS UNDERNEATH THE VIRGA SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

WELL...HMMM...WHAT IS THERE TO SAY.  IF YOU LIKE DRY AND DUSTY WITH 
PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THEN YOU'LL LIKE THIS 
FORECAST. IF YOU'RE LIKE THE REST OF US THOUGH...IT'S ANOTHER 
DISAPPOINTING PRECIP FORECAST AS MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON 
ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEK AND WE'LL HAVE TO HOPE FOR 
SOMETHING TO CHANGE. ONE NICE THING FOR SPRING LOVERS IS THAT 
GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...
SUNNY WITH A MODEST 15-25MPH BREEZE FROM THE SSW WILL BE RULE. HIGHS 
IN THE 70S WILL MAKE THIS A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
AN APPROACHING UPR LEVEL SHRTWV AND DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC LOW IN 
SE CO WILL HELP GENERATE STRONG WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY AND MAY TEMPER MIXING JUST A BIT.  
EVEN SO, HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE 80F AND 
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW AT 25-35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH, KICKING 
UP DUST. 

WE'LL WATCH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY IN THE NE PANHANDLES AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT 
COMES SWEEPING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV 
TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR TSTORMS FOR AREAS LIKE 
PERRYTON, BEAVER, AND LIPSCOMB. IF A STORM OR 2 WAS TO DEVELOP 
AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY...500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50-60KTS OF DEEP SHEAR 
COULD SUPPORT A MARGINALLY STRONG CELL. ANY STORM THREAT SHOULD BE 
OVER BY 06Z MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE WARM AND SUNNY WITH WINDS ONLY 10-20 MPH. A 
COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT BE PULLED BACK 
NORTH QUICKLY BY TUE MORNING, RESULTING IN A BREEZY BUT WARM DAY FOR 
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SANS THE NE PANHANDLES...WHERE THE FRONT 
WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT THROUGH. REMOVED ANY STORM CHANCES FROM THE 
FORECAST TUE AS NEGATIVE FACTORS (ESPECIALLY CAPPING) FAR OUTWEIGH 
THE POSITIVE FACTORS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MED RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME AND HAVE GONE THE PATH OF THE 
ECMWF/GEM WHICH ARE WARMER THAN THE GFS.  AS OF THIS WRITING... 
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MEAGER IN THIS PERIOD.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW TODAY. 

SATURDAY...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PART OF 
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN 
THE NW PANHANDLES. 

SUNDAY...
THE NW HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL PROBABLY SEE CRITICAL FIRE 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS SSW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH COMBINE WITH 
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. SUNDAY COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGHER END OF 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER AREAS SUCH AS DALHART AND BOISE CITY. THE 
MAIN QUESTION FOR THESE AREAS IS WHETHER THE FUEL LOADING IS ENOUGH 
TO CREATE/MAINTAIN LARGE FIRES.

MONDAY...
THE SW HALF OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS WITH UP TO 15 MPH SW TWENTY FOOT WINDS AND POSSIBLE 
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN 
PANHANDLES.

WEDNESDAY...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 
WEDNESDAY. 

THE PATTERN BEYOND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREQUENT 
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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