328 
FXUS63 KBIS 281715
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

WEAK REFLECTIVITIES TRACKING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL SPREAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS A
BIT FARTHER EAST. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP NEAR THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS WILL LOWER
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WHERE THE SNOW AND CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT THE WARM-UP. 

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS/QPF IN THE WEST THIS MORNING. RECEIVED
REPORTS OF AN INCH IN DICKINSON AND FAIRFIELD. PUSHED THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AS SNOW HAS REACHED
NEW SALEM AREA IN MORTON COUNTY. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION MOVE
FARTHER EAST AWAY FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH AND INTO DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE IT IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE TODAY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

LIGHT SNOW WEST WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM TODAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 830 UTC WILL
PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12 UTC IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FORMING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE
INCH OR LESS. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH 
BRISKLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S 
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A BIT COOLER IN THE TURTLE 
MOUNTAINS...AND SLIGHT WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT 
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 
LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BEGIN SETTLING INTO 
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO EJECT 
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOST FAVORABLE 
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH 
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MAIN PHASE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...SUNDAY 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF OPERATIONAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM...ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH 
PREVIOUS DAY'S GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE STRONGEST 
SOLUTION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
(LIGHTEST NORTH AND HEAVIEST SOUTH) AND WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GEM/GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE...AND KEEP SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF ARE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...LENDING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM WILL NOT REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST UNTIL SATURDAY...SO AM NOT READY TO GO WITH THE
WORST CASE ECMWF RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN 2 TO 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH AT
THIS TIME...AND WILL OUTLINE THE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SPREAD THAT FAR OUT IS SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LINGERING AROUND KISN AND EXTENDING
SOUTH...BUT JUST WEST OF KDIK. LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KDIK...KBIS
AND KMOT...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES BUT KJMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND LIFT
LOWER CEILINGS OUT OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...BUT NO MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH