513 
FXUS64 KMEG 281517
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION OVER ANY PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING BUT NO BIG
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS WARM
AND INCREASINGLY MOIST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WANE FOR A PERIOD. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BEFORE
STALLING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY
LEVELS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STALLING FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 

BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE EAST AND INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...SBCAPES
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WITH LI/S BETWEEN -2C AND
-4C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EVEN
GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SBCAPES RANGING FROM
1500-2000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -4C AND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...MUCH OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL
DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. INCREASED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 50 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST IT
WILL HELP TO DRAG THE INITIALLY STALLED FRONT THROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN MOST
AREAS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN RATHER COOL BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
EXPECT A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING EAST DAY...INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S MONDAY. 

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT
PRIOR TO REACHING THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. 

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AT MEM/JBR AFTER
28/22Z WITH BETTER COVERAGE FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING...THEN
SPREADING TO AFFECT MKL AND TUP FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BRING A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
AREA TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY AT MEM/MKL/TUP
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AT JBR WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWEST WITH
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  51  62  43 /  70  90  10   0 
MKL  71  50  60  36 /  50  90  10   0 
JBR  67  45  61  38 /  80  90  10   0 
TUP  74  57  64  40 /  50  90  10   0 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$