814 
FXUS62 KJAX 280123
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

.UPDATE...THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN THINNING OUT THIS EVE BUT 
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RAPID REFRESH AND 
GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER 
TONIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AS AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW POPS THERE FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND ALSO CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE 
GULF COAST. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AOA 10000 FT WILL RULE MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH 
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY AT GNV AROUND THE 10Z-13Z TIME 
FRAME. A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 
FRIDAY WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE FROM W TO E THROUGH 
THE DAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM JAX METRO 
AREAS SWD TO GNV. INDICATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS 
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SE TONIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY S TO SE 
AROUND 8 TO 12 KT ON FRI. TSTMS CHANCES ARE NOT LOW ON FRIDAY AND 
NOT WARRANTED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT 1000-2000 FT LOOK A 
BIT MARGINAL FOR LLWS BUT SSI LOOKED LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES 
SO ARE INCLUDED THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE SE WINDS INCREASING OFFSHORE
WITH THE CANAVERAL BUOY SHOWING ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCEC OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  75  59  77 /  10  50  60  60 
SSI  59  70  62  73 /  10  50  50  60 
JAX  55  78  63  79 /  10  50  50  60 
SGJ  61  74  63  76 /  10  40  50  60 
GNV  55  77  62  78 /  10  60  60  60 
OCF  57  79  63  80 /  10  60  60  60 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/MM