518 
FNUS73 KICT 272022
FWSICT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MITIGATION - DIV T AND X...KANSAS FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 28. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

HERE IS A PRELIMINARY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT INFORMATION.
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATE BY 6 AM.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS DURING THE
DAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
BOTH TOPOGRAPHY AND SHOWERS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN 
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. 
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. 
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. 
CWR.................0 PERCENT. 
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR 
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-2800 FT AGL 
                    LATE IN THE MORNING. 
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 13 TO 17 MPH. 

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
SKY (%).........58     60     61     63     62     60     
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR 
TEMP............36     39     47     53     57     58     
RH..............89     78     58     47     42     42     
20 FT WIND......NE 6   N 6    N 5    N 5    N 5    N 5    
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10            
MIX HGT (FT)....300    1100   2000   2800   2700   2600   
MIXNG WIND......NE 13  N 14   N 16   N 17   N 16   N 15   
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0      
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      3      

$$
FORECASTER...HOWERTON
REQUESTED BY...ERIC WARD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140328.MITIG.01/ICT