442 
FXUS64 KCRP 242103
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SHORT WAVE IS A
LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SEEN MOST OF THE
PRECIP THAT WE EXPECT ALREADY MOVE THROUGH. WILL LINGER A 20 POP
FOR EASTERN AREAS INTO THE EVENING AS SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
NOTED ON RADAR CURRENTLY OUT TO AROUND HWY 281. UPPER JET IS ALSO
PUSHING IN AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. MOISTURE NOW PROGGED TO MOVE OUT MUCH MORE
EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO LOW/MID LEVELS.
PWAT FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 1 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT...LOWER IN THE
NORTH. CLOUDS ALSO STARTING TO CLEAR WEST AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.
TOUGH CALL ON CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT AS MODELS EVEN IN THE 6-18 HR
PERIOD DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WEST AT
LEAST...BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST IT WOULD MAKE IT. SHOULD SEE
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW...HAVE JUST 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN INCREASING WEST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES
BACK IN AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IMPROVES.

WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT...MIN TEMP FORECAST TRICKY AS 
WELL. MAINLY LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40S 
IN THE NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS DONT FILL BACK IN. HIGHS TOMORROW 
EXPECTED AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES 
ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.  MAINLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH LATE 
TOMORROW NIGHT MARINE AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS. 

&&

.MARINE/COASTAL...STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OFFSHORE WATER AND WILL BECOME STRONG TO VERY
STRONG WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL MID TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF WATER. SEAS ARE
LIKELY TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET OFFSHORE. SWELL AND THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK...TO POSSIBLY HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE 
STRONGER WITH THE DRYING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN THE 
900-750MB LAYER. BUT A RAPID MOISTENING IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR 
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OF 40-45 KNOTS 
DEVELOPS IN THIS LAYER. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST IS STILL FORECAST TO SHEAR EAST TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ENTER THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...AND COMBINE WITH THE INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION 
AND MOISTENING TO PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ELEVATED 
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GFS HAS BACKED OF SLIGHTLY ON THE QPF 
AND GFS MOS ON THE POPS...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING MOVING NORTH OF 
THE AREA AND NOT QUITE SYNCED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS SOUTH 
TEXAS. BUT NAM AND ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FORCING AND A 
SLIGHTLY BETTER POSITIONING OF THE 250MB 110 KT JET STREAK NOSING 
OUT OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND BOTH INDICATE BETTER QPF ACROSS 
THE CWA. FOR THIS REASON CHOSE TO KEEP HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END 
LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR STILL 
INDICATED BY MODELS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH 
FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED CAPE WITH THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... 
BUT AT THIS POINT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. WILL 
CONTINUE JUST A MENTION OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. THE 
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND 
RIO GRANDE LEADING TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. EVEN 
WARMER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHS WILL INTO 
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND...TO EVEN LOW 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. 
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO NEXT COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING... 
WITH ECMWF STILL STRONGER THAN GFS. HAVE SHOWN A BLENDED SOLUTION 
FOR NOW...WITH A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT (GIVE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE 
AVAILABLE) MOVING THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    54  70  59  68  66  /  20  10  20  60  20 
VICTORIA          49  70  54  65  61  /  20  10  20  60  40 
LAREDO            54  70  59  70  65  /  10  10  40  40  20 
ALICE             52  71  56  68  64  /  10  10  20  60  20 
ROCKPORT          56  67  62  67  65  /  20  10  20  60  30 
COTULLA           51  71  55  67  62  /  10  10  30  50  20 
KINGSVILLE        54  70  58  69  65  /  20  10  20  60  20 
NAVY CORPUS       56  68  61  68  66  /  20  10  20  60  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM