427 
FXUS63 KFSD 231925
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
225 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE 
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING SPREADING DECENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO 
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW INTO THE CWA...STARTING IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND 03Z...SPREADING TO MOST AREAS NORTH OF I90 
BY 06Z...AND CONTINUING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I29 AFTER 09Z-12Z. 
WEAKER FRONTOGENESIS AT 850-700 MB CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY....MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE 
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS KIND OF LACKING THIS EVENING TO START 
THINGS OFF. TOTAL SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCH...WITH 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE FAR EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY BE GONE BY THE START OF MONDAY 
EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST FOR THE START OF 
THE EVENING...THAT IS ONLY FOR 3 HOURS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME 
CHANCE OF A MORE SOLID BAND OF LOW CLOUDS BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST 
CORNER OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WAVE CLIPPING BY 
QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT WILL FAVOR SUBSIDENCE 
AT LOW LEVELS ALOFT...AND WILL ONLY DELAY THE DECREASE FAR 
NORTHEAST. IN ANY EVENT ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOVING RAPIDLY 
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY 
NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...IN THE 11 TO 17 RANGE.

TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A PRETTY SUNNY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME 
SCATTERED CLOUDS...BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT BLOT OUT VERY MUCH OF THE 
SKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. IT WILL BE COOL WITH 
MID 20S NORTHEAST TO MID 30S SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS...AND A NORTHWEST 
BREEZE SHOULD LINGER.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE TRANSITION TO QUICK WARMING WITH 
LIMITED COOLING IN THE EVENING...THEN THE WARMING SOUTHERLY SURFACE 
FLOW STEADILY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S 
SHOULD BE GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LEVELING OFF AND SLOW 
WARMING LATE IN THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND 
INCREASE SHOULD BE MODEST AND STAY BELOW BREEZY TO WINDY...EVEN ON 
THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MN. ANY WARM ADVECTION CLOUD 
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST WITH THE WARMING MORE ON A BROAD 
SCALE THAN THE SHARPER GRADIENTS THAT PRODUCE SOLID MID CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE STRONG WARMING WITH UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR 
HIGHS...THERE NOT BEING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TO BLUNT THE LATE MARCH 
SUNSHINE. WINDS MAY PICK UP TO THE BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY LEVEL EAST.

MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A 
WESTERLY WAVE FOLLOWING THE WAVE. WILL GO WITH THE GUIDANCE 
PROJECTIONS FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CENTERED ON 
THURSDAY...MAINLY RAIN DUE TO THE SLOW COOLING PROCESS. WILL GO 
WITH A DRY FRIDAY RATHER THAN LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. THIS IS IN FAVOR OF THE 
GENERALLY FASTER EC  WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA 
FRIDAY...AND HAS BEEN COORDINATED. COOL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN DRY 
AND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND AS PER GUIDANCE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY SEE 
SOME COOLING AND PRECIPITATION BUT WILL NOT BET ON ANYTHING THAT FAR 
AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT 
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT 
SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITY WILL ACCOMPANY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...BEGINNING AROUND 
03Z AT KHON AND 06Z AT KFSD AND KSUX. LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITY WILL BE 
POSSIBLE IN THE MORE MODERATE SNOW BANDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS 
THAN 15 KT DURING THE SNOWFALL AND THEN INCREASE INTO MONDAY 
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

DRYING...WARMING...AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY LEAD 
TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT AT 
THIS TIME HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO BRING RED 
FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GILLISPIE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MG
FIRE WEATHER...