404 
FXUS62 KFFC 220006
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
806 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014/ 

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SFC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO 
INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE 
HINTING AT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY 
ABOUT NOONTIME TOO. GFS CAPE IS BASICALLY NEAR ZERO WHILE THE NAM IS 
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON 
SATURDAY /AROUND 500 J/KG/. OVERALL NOT IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY GIVEN 
NEAR ZERO VALUES IN THE GFS...HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A 
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...INSTABILITY DECREASES SO 
ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE A SHORT 
LULL IN THE PRECIP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE 
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATE 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME. 

11

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE
IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP SLIDES SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY BEFORE RETUNING NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED THE
POPS IN THAT WAY. NOT OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE LONG TERM.

17

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE CAPE VALUES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG THAT
OCCUR SAT EVENING DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN
TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE
SOLUTION...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN FOR THE
00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS WELL. 

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NW PORTIONS. DESPITE
ABUNDANT LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...NAM12 KEEPS INSTABILITY AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY MORNING. A NARROW STRIP OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY EMERGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOSE TO 750
J/KG FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER WORDING ALREADY
IN PLACE. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG STORMS EMERGE SHOULD
ENOUGH HEATING OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN NEXT HWO ISSUANCE. 

WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF RESPITE
UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER CONDITIONS WITH
THIS ONE AND ONLY EXPECT RAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH 
CLOSELY CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES ON BACK SIDE OF LOW AS ADDITIONAL 
COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON TUESDAY.

DEESE

FIRE WEATHER...
DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST AREAS ARE BELOW 25 
PERCENT FOR RH. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES INTO THIS 
EVENING DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND 
THOUGH SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS EXPECTED BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING NW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 5KT OVERNIGHT AND 5-8KT THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH 12Z FOR THE ATL AREA AS ANY RESIDUAL WILDFIRE
SMOKE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON VISIBILITY
THROUGH 12Z. 

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  77  52  69 /   0  10  20  70 
ATLANTA         52  74  55  66 /   5  10  20  70 
BLAIRSVILLE     42  67  49  59 /   0  30  50  70 
CARTERSVILLE    46  72  50  63 /  10  20  40  60 
COLUMBUS        52  77  56  69 /   0   5  10  60 
GAINESVILLE     49  73  53  65 /   5  20  30  70 
MACON           49  78  52  72 /   0  10  10  60 
ROME            45  71  51  64 /  10  30  50  70 
PEACHTREE CITY  44  75  50  65 /   5  10  20  70 
VIDALIA         55  77  55  75 /   5  20   5  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...31