854 
FXUS63 KILX 211947
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 247 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014

Models look in good agreement with overall upper level pattern and
expected sfc features through 84hrs. Main concern in the short
term is slight chance of showers/sprinkles tonight as a very weak
cold front moves through the region. Then the concern shifts to
the next system that moves in for early next week with more
chances of pcpn. Models look similar but given temperatures
through that period, p-type is of some concern. Long term models
look through mid week but then look a little bit different with
the next system at the end of the week. Clouds tonight and temps
through the period are also issues this forecast package.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday

A weak cold front will move through the region tonight. Best
forcing with this front will be behind the front, but the moisture
with it will be shallow and limited. So, believe virga or
sprinkles will be best we will get behind the front this evening.
So will just have slight chance of pcpn, given the lack of deep
moisture. Then a large area of clouds will drop into the northern
part of the area behind the front for mainly tonight. Models
having difficulty with this but appears the clouds will move in
and then shift east overnight. So mostly cloudy skies should
become partly cloudy overnight. As cold high pressure pushes into
the region tomorrow, the front will push well south of the state,
so any pcpn expected over the weekend will be well south of the
area now. Unlike yesterday, when the NAM had too much pcpn in our
area, all the models agree now that pcpn will be well south. So
dry weather is expected tomorrow through Sunday night. The next
system will begin to move toward and into the area by Monday
afternoon. Unfortunately, temperatures across the region will be
cold enough that all pcpn should be in for the form of snow. With
sfc temps being just above freezing, mid to upper 30s, do not
expect much, if any, accumulation. 

Temperatures will become cooler through the period and should
result in highs being 10-15 degrees below normal. Guidance did go
cooler and trended that way too. 

LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday

The Monday system will continue through Tuesday as models indicate
a two wave type system. So, still expecting a chance of snow
through Tuesday as the system/s move through the area. Again, not
expecting much, if any, accumulations since sfc temperatures
should be just above freezing, especially during the day. Then
another area of high pressure will build into the region, bringing
dry but continued cool weather through Wed night. Then as a zonal
flow takes over for the end of the week, temps will begin to
moderate back up some, though still below normal. Along with that,
another weather system will move into the area for Thursday and
Thursday night. At this point, models differ on how fast the pcpn
will move out of the area. ECMWF is quickest and GFS lingers pcpn.
For now will go with the drier ECMWF for Friday. 

Temps through the extended forecast will start as continued below
normal, but then warm, reaching only into the 50s for Thur and
Fri, which is still below normal. 

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014

Warm front has lifted north of TAF sites allowing 10-15 kt
southwest winds to develop. These could gust as high as 25 kts
this afternoon in tightening gradient ahead of approaching cold
front. Thickening cirrus shield this afternoon may limit mixing
and associated gustiness somewhat. Cold front progged to sweep
west to east from 23Z-03Z, switching winds around to WNW and
maintaining brisk/gusty nature. Moisture is quite limited but
forcing immediately behind front could produce a few hours of
isolated showers or virga and have included VCSH. A large area of
MVFR stratocu over the Dakotas/MN has been making steady progress
SE and short range models show general agreement that this will
progress as far SE as PIA/BMI after midnight. Thus have included
BKN MVFR ceilings here through 15Z, and with lower confidence this
will affect southern sites kept scattered mention for now.

25
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$