895 
FXUS64 KLZK 152037
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
WILL ALLOW FOR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO DIVE DEEP ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 1ST WAVE IS USHERING A BROAD SWATH OF PACIFIC 
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. A SURFACE 
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE ACROSS TX...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT 
ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR...WITH GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SW AR...AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WESTERN AR.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN...DIVING SOUTH 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX. THIS DEEPER SYSTEM WILL 
INGEST THE FIRST WAVE AS THE AXES BECOME ALIGNED...AND 
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO 
GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM ALOFT...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL FORM BY 
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LESSEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR.
THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL AR. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
STATE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIP COMING TO AN END.

HEAVY RAIN: GIVEN THE TWO MOISTURE SOURCES...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND PACIFIC...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS 
NORTHWEST AR TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONG ASCENT AND TRAINING...THESE 
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 WILL BE 
NOTED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 
LATE...EXPECT PROBLEMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED. 

THUNDERSTORMS: GIVEN THE AMPLE ENERGY WITH THESE WAVES THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE SHOWERS. 
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE 
STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING SURFACE BASED ACROSS THE 
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND BEST DYNAMICS/WIND
SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING REDUCING THE
SEVERE THREAT.

WINTER WEATHER: COLD AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM 
ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. A 
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO SNOW WILL OCCUR A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3
INCHES. AGAIN THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. SNOW WILL MIX IN ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS LATER ON
SUNDAY...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

HIGH WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SUSTAIN WINDS OF 20 TO 30 
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE 
WILL BE A COUPLE OF FRONTS...BUT ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEMS WILL GO 
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH NOT MUCH ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER 
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED ANYWAY.

THE FIRST FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GO THROUGH 
DRY. THE LATTER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 
MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...SO ADDED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  50  24  46 / 100  90  50  10 
CAMDEN AR         58  65  31  54 / 100  40  30  10 
HARRISON AR       46  42  18  47 / 100  80  30  10 
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  59  29  53 / 100  50  40  10 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  59  29  52 / 100  60  40  10 
MONTICELLO AR     58  66  31  51 / 100  40  30  10 
MOUNT IDA AR      54  56  28  54 / 100  50  30  10 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  44  20  46 / 100  90  40  10 
NEWPORT AR        53  52  25  45 / 100  90  50  10 
PINE BLUFF AR     56  63  30  50 / 100  40  40  10 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  55  26  53 / 100  70  40  10 
SEARCY AR         54  57  27  48 / 100  80  50  10 
STUTTGART AR      55  62  29  49 / 100  60  50  10 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...46