National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBGM
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBGM
Product Timestamp: 2014-03-08 11:44 UTC
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019 FXUS61 KBGM 081144 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 644 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A MODERATION TREND THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM UPDATE... TEMPS SPIKING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SITES ACROSS WESTERN NY ALREADY REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY SLGT CHC ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING TO GET THINGS GOING WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SLGT CHC TO LOW END CHC SHOULD COVER THINGS APPROPRIATELY AS FEATURE PASSES. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS RESIDING IN THE LOWER 30S JUST WEST OF BUFFALO...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION. BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM TODAY IS DETERMINING WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS ALL FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VERY MEAGER QPF AMOUNTS AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVEN MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. P-TYPE FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...P-TYPE INITIALLY SHOULD BE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO RA SHWRS WITH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. REGARDLESS...WE/RE LOOKING AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY. RAIN/SN SHWRS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES BY MID-EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. INSPECTION OF SEVERAL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER. THAT SAID...NAM-12 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS. FOR NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CHC MENTION THROUGH 9Z...AFTER WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IF ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GETS GOING. AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...EXPECT DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MISS RVR VLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GFS SHOWS DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BULK OF QPF NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH AGREES WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT SN SHWRS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH BEST POP POTENTIAL REMAINING NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 430 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE STORM FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES INVOLVED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE NRN AND PACIFIC STREAMS SEPARATE RESULTING IN A LESS INTENSE LOW WHICH TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE. THE ECMWF PHASES THE TWO STREAMS BINGING THE SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THEN INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALL IT ALL SNOW FOR NOW BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISC... LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS HEAVILY BASED ON WPC GUIDANCE. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM PASSING ACRS THE MID ATLC RGN. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING POTNL PHASING AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. WE DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS TIME FRAME (WED/WED NGT). OTRW SOME LGT PCPN FROM PASSING NRN STREAM SYSTEMS (ENHANCED AT TIMES FROM LAKE INFLUENCES) PRIOR TO THIS STORM. TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE U30S OR LOWER 40S ON TUE...FALLING TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY OVER THE REGION FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CIGS BY MID MORNING THEN MVFR/LOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. KRME/KAVP MAY BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR. VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AT 8-12 KNOTS DECEASING TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN. WED...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMG NEAR TERM...CMG SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM