711 
FXUS64 KMEG 050318 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS EVENING AND
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM WEST TN AND NORTH MS INTO EAST AR.
ALSO...BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. AM CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...TEMPERATURE / DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BECOMING INCREASING
SMALLER...AND ICE COVERED AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. FOR NOW...WILL ADD PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE GRIDS AND ZONE
FORECASTS. ALSO WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
MONITOR FOR THE NECESSITY OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. UPDATES WILL
BE OUT SOON.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOWER LEVEL STRATUS
HAS WORKED INTO SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE...EAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AS THE SURFACE WAVE AND SHORTWAVE PROGRESS
FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST. AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO AROUND 30
DEGREES IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN COLD
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SLEET/ICE PACK PERSISTS. CLOUDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION AND WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES
CLEARING. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY REBUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE REMAINS
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS INTO
THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIP TYPES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER FOR THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AT
KMEM AND KJBR. CURRENT IFR CEILINGS AT KMKL AND KTUP WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AND WILL REACH VFR LEVELS AT KTUP BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
BY MID-MORNING AT KMKL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  20  41  33  44 /   0   0  20  20 
MKL  21  39  30  43 /   0   0  20  20 
JBR  14  32  28  39 /   0   0  10  10 
TUP  30  57  38  49 /  10   0  50  50 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$