000 
FXUS65 KPSR 031146
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION 
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE 
HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM 
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY 
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL GRADUALLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE WET STORM 
SYSTEM A COUPLE DAYS AGO. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FAIRLY HIGH 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. 
CURRENTLY DON/T THINK ANY FOG FORMATION WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE 
REST OF TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT A FEW SPOTS NEAR 
SATURATION MAY SEE A SLIGHT HAZE. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA...BUT WITH THE 
LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE OR APPRECIABLE DYNAMICS ONLY HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE 
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF 
THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RECOVER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE 
PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL END UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. 

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STORM PATTERN HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND THE JET 
ENERGY WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AT 
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. FURTHER SOUTH...THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL START TO BULGE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 
7C ON YESTERDAY TO 11C TODAY AND NEARING 15C FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD 
SEE A LARGE AREA REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN 
MORE ON THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS LIKELY AROUND 85. PERIODS OF 
HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY OPAQUE AT TIMES...WILL LIKELY AFFECT 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT TOO EARLY TO PIN POINT 
TO WHAT EXTENT AND TO EXACTLY WHEN.

THE ONLY POSSIBLE RAIN MAKER FOR THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE A FAST 
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT 
BASIN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE 
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND HOW 
FAR SOUTH AND WEST IT WILL END UP. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN SEEMS TO 
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN 
ARIZONA...BUT EITHER WAY THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL REALLY HAMPER ANY 
RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONGER
EUROPEAN. STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING 
VERY DRY AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.     

&&

.AVIATION... 
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS CIRRUS COVER WILL 
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN LATER TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL 
REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL 
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS...AND IN SOME CASES MAY BECOME VARIABLE OR NEARLY 
CALM FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD 
(HIGHS IN THE 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS)...WITH PREDOMINATELY DRY 
WEATHER. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY MAY 
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE 
STATE...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
ARIZONA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FROM RECENT 
RAINFALL WILL STEADILY EVAPORATE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES 
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS...FOLLOWED BY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT 
RECOVERY. 

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO