042 
FXUS62 KMLB 021432
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT FOG HAS BURNED OFF LEAVING MOSTLY 
SUNNY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING. LATEST RUC13 500MB PLOT WAS 
SHOWING THAT THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE WAS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST 
COAST TO EAST OF THE NJ/NY/CT AREA. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED 
TROUGH JUST OFF THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN 
THE PREVIOUS SENTENCE. THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN IN ESSENTIALLY 
THE SAME AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE TWO SMALL GRID LOCAL WRF MODELS 
AND THE NAM12 HAVE BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB OF CATCHING THIS FEATURE 
AND ARE DOING SO IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS. 

THE MORNING ZONE/COASTAL UPDATES WILL BACK THE WINDS MORE TO THE 
NORTH ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND COAST SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH 
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
EAST EARLY EVENING AS THE INVERTED TROUGHING FINALLY BREAKS/FLATTENS 
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC 
AND THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEEPENS. ALSO...THE AFTERNOON WINDS 
AT THE COAST AND NORTHERN TWO/2 COASTAL WATER ZONES HAVE BEEN 
STRONGER THAN THE GFS/MOS WINDS NORMALLY USED TO POPULATE THE UPDATE 
GRIDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS

TODAY-TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE MORNING FOG 
DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMPONENT PUSHING IT INTO NORTHERN 
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE WEST 
THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT LAKE/SUMTER COUNTY WILL 
GET THE DENSEST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND 
THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL 
PROMOTE LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWEST 
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE LAKE/VOLUSIA AREA...WITH PERHAPS 1-3 
MILES FOR ANY OTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT. 

915 MHZ PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE FOG LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW AND WILL 
LIKELY BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE IN MOST LOCATIONS. 
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SLIDES DOWN THE COAST WITH 
ITS AXIS ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. 

BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. NICE SPRING 
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...EXCEPTION 
ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COAST WHICH WILL GET INTO THE MID 
70S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 
50S...AROUND 60 ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. PATCHY FOG 
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE COAST. 

MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO SOUTH FL EARLY MON 
MORNING...THEN ERODES AND SLIDES EAST IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE 
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH FL
(GFS) AND THE FAR NORTHERN CWA (ECM). THE LATTER MODEL ADVANCES
THE PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...AND IN
DEFERENCE TO THAT...HAVE KEPT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS OSCEOLA/BREVARD 
COS. FRONT ESSENTIALLY BECOMES QSTNRY NEAR IT'S POSN SUNRISE TUE... 
WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE EAST OF FL. 
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FCST OF SLGT CHC FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA IN 
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH BRIDGES THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON...AND NOW TUE AS WELL
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN WAS ADVERTISED H24 AGO.

WED-THU...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SLOWLY BUT SURELY CONVERGING ON A SOLN 
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THEIR PREVIOUS SOLNS W/R/T STRENGTH AND TIMING 
OF THE GOMEX LOW. IT LOOKS AS IF THE ECM HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD 
THE WEAKER GFS AT BOTH THE SFC AND H50...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING THE CWA. AS SFC LOW TAKES 
SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS VEER FROM E-NE WED 
MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS
TO SUB-1010MB SOUTH OF SRN AL/MS/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THU MORNING... 
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE FL BIG 
BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY... 
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS POINTS TO 
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQLN OF STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE THU 
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DECENT 
CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE OF AN EVENT
IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A DAY 5 EVENT.

FRI-SAT...LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER IN THE 
DAY AS THEY UPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. COOLER AND
DRIER WX WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG/STRATUS BANK FROM NE FLORIDA RETURNS WITH PREVAILING 
LIFR CIGS AND INITIAL VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS NORTH OF A KDED-KZPH LINE. 
EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE BEHIND INITIAL PUSH TO AROUND 1SM. 
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z WITH TEMPO 
VSBYS 1-2SM. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z...THOUGH NORTHERNMOST 
FOG AREAS MAY LINGER THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG EAST 
COAST SEABREEZE FL040-050. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 
08/06Z AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OFF TO 
THE EAST...WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS BACKED MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR 
AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE THIS 
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN THE COAST WITH RIDGE AXIS 
ENDING UP OVER THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY 10-15KTS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST 
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 
10KTS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS 
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 10-15KTS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. 

COMBINATION OF LINGERING SWELL AND WIND WAVE KEEPING SEAS AROUND 2-3 
FT NEAR THE COAST AND 3-5 FT OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 
DOMINANT PERIODS LENGTHENING FROM 8SEC TO 9-10SEC LATE TONIGHT. 

MON-THU...COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND EARLY WED...
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
GOMEX LOW. SOME MODERATE ONSHORE (NE-ENE) WINDS COULD LEAK INTO THE
VOLUSIA WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-5FT RANGE THROUGH WED. INCREASING S-SWRLY
WINDS AND SEAS THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF FAST-MOVING STRONG
TS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ATLC LATE THU-THU EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND 
WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND AWAY FROM 
INFLUENCES NEAR THE COAST. CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOT 
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  58  81  62 /   0  10  10  20 
MCO  81  59  84  62 /   0   0  10  20 
MLB  79  62  80  64 /   0  10  10  20 
VRB  80  60  82  61 /   0  10  10  10 
LEE  79  59  82  61 /   0   0  10  20 
SFB  80  59  83  62 /   0   0  10  20 
ORL  80  60  83  62 /   0   0  10  20 
FPR  79  60  81  63 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY