National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDRLX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDRLX
Product Timestamp: 2014-02-27 02:56 UTC
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423 FXUS61 KRLX 270258 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 956 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... NEXT ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. TROUGH ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 945 PM UPDATE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE WINDS KICK UP LATER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ABUNDANCE OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME -SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT PROVIDING LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING GENERALLY RANGED IN THE 1-3 INCH CATEGORY WITH SOME SPOT 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN RANDOLPH/UPSHUR. THE -SHSN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL SUBSIDE BY 21Z. EXPECT ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. WITH SOME SLACKENING OF SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING...SUSPECT A FAST DROP IN TEMPS BEFORE SW FLOW KICKS UP AHEAD OF NEXT S/W TROF AND ARCTIC SURGE. THIS PRESENTS A WIND CHILL CONUNDRUM FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS SHOULD TEMPS NOT REBOUND TOWARD MORNING AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS PREDAWN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN ACROSS PERRY COUNTY AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE ATTM. THINK MAINLY DRY WITH THIS FEATURE...SAVE FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE N. DO FEEL FLAT STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N WV AGAIN FOR TOMORROW. WILL LINGER THE FLURRY MENTION THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS PER STRONG CAA AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY TOMORROW WITH SOME EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DURING PRIME MIXING HOURS. HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 35 TO 45 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AOA 3KFT. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY THOUGH. CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE FELT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TOMORROW...RESULTING IN MAXT SIMILAR TO TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SW VA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN MOISTURE SLOWLY ERODING. THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR A QUIET BUT COLD BEGINNING TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER THE LONG ISLAND AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE 500MB FLOW TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY. HAD TO LEAVE IN LOW CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FIGURE THIS WILL BE TIGHTENED UP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER STARTING OUT VERY COLD...MARCH COMES IN WITH A BIT OF AN IMPROVEMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IMPERFECT AND THE MAGNITUDE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END...IT WILL HELP GET TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...BUT NO MAJOR WARM UPS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL FEATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE END RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR AND WHAT THE RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR. IT MAY NOT BE AS SIMPLE IF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW. THERE ARE SOME MODEL INDICATIONS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 03Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY... VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT S/W TROF AND ARCTIC SURGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. FEEL MOST TAF SITES WILL KEEP THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS UNTIL LATE. A MAINLY DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH DURING 12 TO 16Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME VFR TO MVFR STRATOCU POST FRONTAL MAINLY NORTH. WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT TURN MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MOST LOCALES WITH 35 TO 45 KTS AOA 3KFT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 21Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOSS OF MIXING BEGINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU ON THURSDAY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 02/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046- 047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV