AFOS product AFDRLX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDRLX
Product Timestamp: 2014-02-27 02:56 UTC

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FXUS61 KRLX 270258
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
956 PM EST WED FEB 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. TROUGH ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEAK FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER LOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY IN 
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE WINDS KICK UP LATER. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANCE OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS 
SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME -SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT 
PROVIDING LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL FROM LAST 
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING GENERALLY RANGED IN THE 1-3 INCH CATEGORY 
WITH SOME SPOT 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN RANDOLPH/UPSHUR. THE -SHSN ACROSS 
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SUBSIDE BY 21Z.

EXPECT ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING FOR A 
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. WITH SOME SLACKENING OF SURFACE WINDS THIS 
EVENING...SUSPECT A FAST DROP IN TEMPS BEFORE SW FLOW KICKS UP AHEAD 
OF NEXT S/W TROF AND ARCTIC SURGE. THIS PRESENTS A WIND CHILL 
CONUNDRUM FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS SHOULD TEMPS NOT REBOUND 
TOWARD MORNING AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH 
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH 
AND POCAHONTAS PREDAWN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN ACROSS PERRY 
COUNTY AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE ATTM. 

THINK MAINLY DRY WITH THIS FEATURE...SAVE FOR SOME FLURRIES ACROSS 
THE N. DO FEEL FLAT STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N WV AGAIN FOR 
TOMORROW. WILL LINGER THE FLURRY MENTION THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS 
PER STRONG CAA AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL 
BECOME QUITE GUSTY TOMORROW WITH SOME EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER 
DURING PRIME MIXING HOURS. HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA WITH 35 TO 45 KTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AOA 3KFT. NOT QUITE 
STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY THOUGH. CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE 
FELT ACROSS SE OH AND N WV TOMORROW...RESULTING IN MAXT SIMILAR TO 
TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SW VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN 
MOISTURE SLOWLY ERODING. THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR A QUIET BUT 
COLD BEGINNING TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. 
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER THE LONG ISLAND AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH A 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE 500MB FLOW TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE RIVER 
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY 
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR SATURDAY. HAD TO 
LEAVE IN LOW CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FIGURE THIS WILL BE 
TIGHTENED UP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AFTER STARTING OUT VERY COLD...MARCH COMES IN WITH A BIT OF AN 
IMPROVEMENT TO THE TEMPERATURES...BUT ANY WARM ADVECTION WILL BE 
IMPERFECT AND THE MAGNITUDE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN THE END...IT 
WILL HELP GET TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...BUT NO MAJOR WARM 
UPS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL
FEATURES PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE END RESULT OF THIS WILL
BE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR 
AND WHAT THE RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR.  IT MAY NOT BE 
AS SIMPLE IF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW.  
THERE ARE SOME MODEL INDICATIONS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME 
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET.

BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION 
TYPES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
03Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THRU 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT S/W TROF AND ARCTIC SURGE FROM THE NORTHWEST 
WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. FEEL MOST TAF SITES WILL KEEP THE LIGHT 
SURFACE WINDS UNTIL LATE. A MAINLY DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE 
THROUGH DURING 12 TO 16Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME VFR TO MVFR STRATOCU 
POST FRONTAL MAINLY NORTH. WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT TURN MORE  WEST 
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS MOST LOCALES 
WITH 35 TO 45 KTS AOA 3KFT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 21Z AS 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND LOSS OF MIXING BEGINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU ON
THURSDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 02/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV