536 
FXUS63 KTOP 220530
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 20Z shows a weak shortwave 
moving across central Nebraska with an area of sprinkles in eastern 
Nebraska. These should come to an end before clipping the northeast 
corner of Kansas by sunset. Warm advection has sent temperatures 
into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. 

There still exists an area of extreme fire danger in the southeast 
CWA this afternoon as winds remain near or above 20 mph with RH 
values near 20 percent. Will hold onto the Red Flag Warning through 
6 PM. 

Tonight, the second wave will move through the upper trough across 
the Northern and Central Plains. This feature will keep most of the 
lift to the north of Kansas tonight. However this feature will bring 
a cool front south into Kansas by 12Z Saturday and into Oklahoma 
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures tonight will cool off into 
the mid 20s north to the lower 30s in east central Kansas. Highs 
Saturday will range from the mid 40s in the northeast where better 
cold advection is expected to the mid 50s south of I-35.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

Another weak shortwave trough will move across the central plains 
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Models continue to develop light 
snow in upslope flow and isentropic lift west and northwest of the
county warning area (cwa) in this timeframe. Although the forcing
with the eastward and southward extent will decrease with
time...some of the light snow may clip to the northern cwa...but
any accumulations should be very light as a cool northeast wind
and some clouds limits highs to the middle 30s far north to lower
40s in the east central. As the center of the sfc high pressure
slides off to the east into Monday...winds will come back around
to the southeast and aid temps to rise into middle 30s north to
middle 49s southwest.

Two main pushes of cold air will dominate the weather next week. The 
first will move through the cwa Monday night with the passage of 
another shortwave trough across the northern plains. This will limit 
highs on Tuesday to only the 20s north to the 30s south. The second 
reinforcing push of cold air will arrive Tuesday night into 
Wednesday with highs primarily in the middle to upper 20s with a few 
spots in the far south and southeast cwa near the freezing mark. 
Although cannot totally rule out the possibility of brief period of 
light snow/snow flurries in the wake of the fronts...the chances for 
this to occur are too low to insert into the fcst at this point.
Lows Wednesday through Friday will commonly be in the teens with 
some single digit temps across the northern counties by Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Winds will
remain light tonight, but a cold front will move through TAF sites
between 15Z and 18Z with winds shifting out of the north and
increasing to around 15kts through the remainder of the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Barjenbruch