562 
FXUS63 KFGF 211831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

A BIT OF LINGERING SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT WITH THAT ENDING
SOON AND ONLY MOSTLY DRIFTING SNOW REMAINING HAVE LET THE HEADLINE
EXPIRE AND WILL UPDATE THE SPS PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT OUT FOR DRIFTING
AND A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW OVER EAST-WEST ROADWAYS. NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRIFTING AND A BIT OF BLOWING
SNOW. THE WEB CAMS AND OBS SHOW VIS AROUND 1SM AT WORST IN WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES...SO WILL GET RID OF THE ADVISORY IN THAT
AREA AND KEEP IT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. A FEW SITES ARE
STILL REACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA...BUT THINK THAT TEMPS WILL BE
COMING UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND READINGS ARE BORDERLINE
ANYWAY. WILL GET RID OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY A BIT EARLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

LIGHT SNOW WASKISH-BAUDETTE BUT STILL GOT WINDS DOWN INTO WADENA
SO WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY AND ALSO BASED ON WHAT MPX IS
DOING WHICH IS TO KEEP TODD COUNTY MN TO THE SOUTH IN ADVISORY.
MAY BE ABLE TO DROP SOME OF THE ADVISORY AREA AFTER DAYLIGHT.
WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO THAT IS
FINE TOO. OVERALL NO CHANGES TO PREV GRIDD ISSUANCE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

ISSUE WILL BE WIND AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA. SFC
LOW IS WEST OF MARQUETTE MICHIGAN AT 09Z. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA FROM BEMIDJI TO BAUDETTE. EARLIER
REPORTS HAD INDICATED AROUND 2-2.50 INCHES IN THE PARK RAPIDS AREA
AND UP TO 3 IN FAR EASTERN WADENA COUNTY. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WX
ADVISORY BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH AS HUBBARD AND WADENA MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED AFTER SUNRISE AS OBS INDICATE SNOW HAS ENDED.
BUT WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS THERE CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.  

OTHERWISE...IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING WITH
WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. OBS INDICATE SOME THIN STRATOCU OR
PERHAPS SUSPENDED ICE CRYSTALS OR BLOWING SNOW...AS CHECK OUTSIDE
OFFICE INDICATE SOME STARS SHINING. WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
IT IS CLEAR. WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN NORTHEASTERN ND WARRANT KEEPING WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS
WELL...THOUGH IN SOME SPOTS IT IS MARGINAL.

FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA (LOW REGION). AS LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO IT
WILL FILL AND CIRCULATION PATTERN GETS LARGER AND CLOUDS LIKELY TO
HOLD IN THE EAST AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH 925
MB COLD ADVECTION DONT LOOK FOR A LARGE RISE IN TEMPS. BUT
CONSDIERING SOME SPOTS ARE NEAR TODAYS FCST HIGHS IN PLACES LIKE
GWINNER ND DID GO WITH THE WARMER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ALLOW
FOR A FEW DEGREE RISE. 

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
GENERALLY CLEAR SOUTHWESTERN HALF. COLDEST TEMPS DVL-FAR REGION IN
CLEARER SLOT WITH SOME LOWS DOWN NEAR -10F. WINDS LIKELY TO HOLD
UP ENOUGH SO THAT DVL REGION MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

SIMLAR PATTERN INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTHEAST AS LARGE
SFC LOW SLOWS DOWN IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MORE SUNNY IN
SOUTHWESTERN HALF. 925 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR.  

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHEASTERN ND SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. TEMPS
SUNDAY AGAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR
HIGHS.  

MONDAY-THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
COMING WORK WEEK. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SUSTAINED 
THROUGH REINFORCING SURGES OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING A SERIES OF UPPER 
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BY MID-WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL 
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR DOME. DRY 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EACH WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE 
LOW DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SD BORDER ON 
MONDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS 
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO WITH LOWS 
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS IS CIGS/VSBY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY 
EAST AS DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. 
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM STORM SYSTEM ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH OUT 
OF CANADA BRINGING MOSTLY MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLD...IFR CIGS TO THE 
ERN PART OF THE FA. GFK AND FAR RIDING THE RAGGED EDGE BETWEEN MVFR 
AND VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING TO FORECAST 
ATTM. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY NW WINDS...ALSO EXPECT VSBY IN SOME 
AREAS TO BE REDUCED TO AS LITTLE AS 1/2 MILE IN -SN/BLSN. 
THUS...COVERED RAPID CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE 
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA...AND DRIER AIR 
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. DVL MAINLY VFR ATTM...BUT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW 
INTMT CIGS AND WILL REFLECT ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY AROUND 12Z SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS