235 
FXUS63 KFSD 172049
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
249 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL 
BEGIN TO SEE THE GUSTY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON 
TAPER DOWN IN THE EVENING...AND TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PULLS A SURFACE TROUGH 
THROUGH OUR THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RANGE TONIGHT...MORE SO IN THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SITUATED NOT TOO FAR OFF 
THE SURFACE. THIS MAKES LOWS KIND OF TRICKY...AS AREAS WITH LESS 
WIND WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE MORE...BUT AT THIS POINT GOING FOR 
READINGS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 30S THROUGH 
THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH 
THE ONLY EFFECTS OF NOTE BEING A FEW CLOUDS AND TURNING WINDS AROUND 
TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING 
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED 
LAYER RUNNING AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
TRICKY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A BUST BEING ALONG 
THE SNOW/NO SNOW LINE RUNNING FROM AROUND HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO 
STORM LAKE. IF THE SNOW MOSTLY CLEARS OUT OF THOSE AREAS TODAY THEN 
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THOSE LOCALES ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE 
AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI 
RIVER CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 40S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE A MILD PERIOD AS A FAST 
MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...WHICH WILL SET UP BREEZY 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS TIME AROUND 
THE MODELS ARE JUST A TOUCH QUICKER WITH THE INCOMING COOL FRONT AND 
POTENTIAL ENHANCED MIXING JUST AHEAD SO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES 
STILL LOOK ON TARGET.

A DECENT JET MAX WILL SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY AND WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WENT AHEAD AND 
RAISED POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT BORDERLINE FOR TYPE BUT 
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUGGEST EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE DETERMINING 
FACTOR THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET. AT LEAST THIS TIME AROUND IT 
LOOKS LIKE NO THREAT FOR ICING. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME 
WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCREASED LOWS TO MAINLY THE 
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WITH THE INCOMING COOL PUNCH ON 
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE MARGINALLY BEFORE STEADYING OUT 
OR DROPPING A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW AIMING FOR MAINLY RAIN 
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THIS WAVE AS IT PASSES AND ONLY 
AN INCH OR LESS SNOWFALL THREAT.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...OVERALL LOOKING LIKE 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FULL 
LATITUDE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MODELS 
STILL INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAX WILL 
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND HELP REINFORCE THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR. WILL KEEP ONLY LOWER END 
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THE MODELS CONTINUE SHIFT A BIT 
SOUTH BUT REALLY ARE JUST MAINTAINING A LOT OF INCONSISTENCY WITH 
ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. TOOK POPS OUT ON FRIDAY BUT LEFT 
THE SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL POPS 
DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE OBVIOUSLY PRETTY 
LOW AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM