257 
FXUS61 KCAR 081409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
909 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEW YOUR
STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE: CLR SKIES HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORN THRU MOST OF THE
FA EVEN AS FAR N AS NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. FOR NOW...WE DELAYED SC
CLD CVR...SCT FLURRIES AND ISOLD SN SHWRS OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA
UNTIL MORE IN THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH...NOT SURE THEY WILL MATERIALIZE
GIVEN HOW DRY LLVLS OF THE ATMOS LOOK ATTM. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED THRU UNCHGD AFTN FCST HI TEMPS BASED ON LATEST
OBSVD SFC TEMPS.

600 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF QUICKLY DUE TO SOME CLEARING. HENCE, SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS CLEARING. THIS CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE CLOUDS ARE SHOWING
UP ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER QUEBEC AND MOVING EAST.

ORGNL DISC: ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AT THIS TIME(06Z) AND IS HANDLED WELL BY THE NAM AND EVEN
THE GFS. THERE IS A JET MAX(50KTS) SHOWING UP W/THIS FEATURE AND
IT WILL HELP DRIVE THE DISTURBANCE TODAY. THEREFORE, THE LATEST
FCST HAS CLOUDS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION W/THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WEAK
MID- LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON W/GUST POTENTIAL OF 30+MPH AND SHOWN ON THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45+KTS USING A BLEND OF
THE NAM & GFS. THERE IS AN INVERTED V SOUNDING W/MOISTURE FROM
925-800MBS BUT DRY ABOVE THIS LAYER. THIS SETUP COULD ALLOW FOR
THOSE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT EARLY AND THEN FALLING BACK AFTER 18Z AS SOME
CAA MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
W/MID UPPER TEENS NORTH AND WEST AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR SETUP AS THIS MORNING
W/MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE DIFFERENCE FROM THIS MORNING IS THAT
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FCST TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST
REGION WHICH WILL HOLD UP LOW TEMPERATURES SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO
A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY 12Z MONDAY...AND THEN PASSING TO
THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO
HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER MOST
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS LOW AS SIGNIFICANTLY
OR AS STRONGLY AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE ESPECIALLY THE COAST WHERE WE COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. THIS
HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST DURING WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD
RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL A
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WONT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVING THE WIDE VARIATION IN THE TRACK/TIMING/INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AMONG THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. AT THIS POINT THE
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AND RAIN OR SNOW TO RAN ACROSS DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE SUCH AS KFVE AND KCAR. SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE THERE THIS MORNING AND COULD HANG ON FOR A WHILE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIG LIFTS AND THINS. 

SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY KBGR/KBHB. VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS LET TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
DROPPING OFF BELOW SCA CRITERIA. NO HEADLINES FOR LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT W/WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS DROPPING BACK TO LESS THAN
5 FT.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA