404 
FXUS62 KILM 071714 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1213 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFFSHORE SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
WET CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:15 PM FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH MID 40S SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EXPECTED OVERHEAD MUCH OF
THE DAY. BELOW THE SUBSIDENT LAYER...RH DEPICTIONS IN TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS SHOW H8 CLOUDS MAY SPILL ENE OR FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS LOCALLY HIGH BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET WITH
WEAK LIFT FROM OVER-RUNNING IN THIS LAYER. THESE MOISTURE PROFILES
SUGGEST CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND CIRRUS MAY
QUICKLY ENCROACH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL. THIS CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH COLD ADVECTION COOLING
SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50
FAHRENHEIT THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT-WAVE ENERGY QUICKLY EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY ANY PCPN WILL FAVOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT PATCHY -RA SHOULD BE OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DEVELOPS ALONG A REMNANT FRONT OFFSHORE THE FL COAST...AND RACES UP 
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT 
MOVES NORTHEAST...AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY. THERE IS 
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE 
COAST...WHERE PRECIP DURATION IS LONGER AND PWATS ARE HIGHER. 
PERIODS OF MDT RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE HELPS 
PROMOTE LIFT IN A SATURATED COLUMN. QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES 
REMAINS REASONABLE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM 
EAST TO WEST...AND I-95 COUNTIES MAY SEE ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL. STILL...WILL RAMP POP TO CATEGORICAL CWA-WIDE EARLY 
SATURDAY...BEFORE LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND POP FALLS 
TO SILENT SAT NIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTLE AIR-MASS 
MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL 
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY...SO SUNDAY WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THANKS 
TO CLOUDS...RAIN...AND NORTH WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ONLY TO 
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 50. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES 
SANDWICHED IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 
60...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE COUNTIES OF SC. LOWS 
BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 
THE WARMER OF THE TWO. WILL BUMP MINS SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A BUSY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEEK ON TAP AS A 
COMPLEX SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL BE 
MOSTLY DRY AS LIMITED MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF IT. MONDAY MAY 
END UP BEING THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK...BUT AS WEDGE HIGH 
PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF LATE MONDAY AND SW FLOW PERSISTS 
ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVE AND BY MONDAY 
NIGHT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP. STILL...THE WETTER PERIOD 
BEGINS TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THESE WILL CREATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY 
HAVE ANOTHER MIXED-PRECIP OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH A WARM LAYER. WILL 
NOT INTRODUCE ANY FROZEN PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT DO WANT 
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY AS IT HAS NOW SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS 
FOR MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL OF THESE EVENTS 
THIS WINTER. 

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE 
WED INTO THU. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LOW 
PRESSURE...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE BASED OFF 
PERSISTENCE...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN INTO LATE WEEK...SOME OF WHICH 
MAY BE HEAVY AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS TO THE 
WEST...FUNNELING COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...COLDEST EARLY IN THE 
WEEK WITH SLOW WARMING OCCURRING BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD 
TOWARD EVENING. OVERNIGHT...A MID CLOUD SHELF WILL INTRODUCE ITSELF 
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER. TIME HEIGHT SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE 
INVADING THE REGION AFTER 10Z...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED AT ALL STATIONS 
BY SUNRISE. ATMOSPHERE THANKFULLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN 
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED 
AREA WIDE...WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY SATURDAY 
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DETERIORATING 
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS 
IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:15 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT. NO CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT MAJOR UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MODERATE NE WINDS TODAY MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES AS AN IMPULSE
ALOFT EXITS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS APPEAR TO BE NEEDED. NE GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BRIEFLY REINFORCED OVER THE WATERS. NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE LOCAL
VISIBILITIES TO 3NM OR LESS AFTER 400 AM AND INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXPECTED BUT UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF NE WIND- WAVES IN
4-5 SECOND WAVE INTERVALS...AND AND 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIGID...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT THERMAL-WEAR CAN SAVE A LIFE
IN THE EVENT OF AN OVER-BOARD SITUATION.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS 
SATURDAY...CAUSING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
TO ITS WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST 
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY...BECOMING RATHER 
DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL FALL TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND BECOME 
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT 
SUNDAY IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE VERY 
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AT 10-15 KTS SUNDAY 
NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE WKND WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF 
SATURDAY...WITH 3-5 FT WAVES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS 
THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT EASES...SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT 
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST AT THESE AMPLITUDES ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS VERY 
EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF 
ALONG THE COAST THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES WINDS WHICH WILL VEER FROM 
NW TO NE THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE PERSISTING AT THIS DIRECTION AND 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAVE AMPLITUDES 
WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE 
PROLONGED NE FETCH DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 2-3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL 
RISE STEADILY...BECOMING 4-6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW

078 
FXUS62 KILM 071713
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1213 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFFSHORE SATURDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN.
A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
WET CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:15 AM FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH MID 40S SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EXPECTED OVERHEAD MUCH OF
THE DAY. BELOW THE SUBSIDENT LAYER...RH DEPICTIONS IN TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS SHOW H8 CLOUDS MAY SPILL ENE OR FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS LOCALLY HIGH BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET WITH
WEAK LIFT FROM OVER-RUNNING IN THIS LAYER. THESE MOISTURE PROFILES
SUGGEST CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND CIRRUS MAY
QUICKLY ENCROACH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL. THIS CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH COLD ADVECTION COOLING
SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50
FAHRENHEIT THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT-WAVE ENERGY QUICKLY EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY ANY PCPN WILL FAVOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT PATCHY -RA SHOULD BE OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DEVELOPS ALONG A REMNANT FRONT OFFSHORE THE FL COAST...AND RACES UP 
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT 
MOVES NORTHEAST...AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY. THERE IS 
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE 
COAST...WHERE PRECIP DURATION IS LONGER AND PWATS ARE HIGHER. 
PERIODS OF MDT RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE HELPS 
PROMOTE LIFT IN A SATURATED COLUMN. QPF OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES 
REMAINS REASONABLE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM 
EAST TO WEST...AND I-95 COUNTIES MAY SEE ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL. STILL...WILL RAMP POP TO CATEGORICAL CWA-WIDE EARLY 
SATURDAY...BEFORE LOW DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND POP FALLS 
TO SILENT SAT NIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTLE AIR-MASS 
MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL 
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY...SO SUNDAY WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THANKS 
TO CLOUDS...RAIN...AND NORTH WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ONLY TO 
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE 50. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES 
SANDWICHED IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR...AND HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 
60...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE COUNTIES OF SC. LOWS 
BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S...BUT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 
THE WARMER OF THE TWO. WILL BUMP MINS SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A BUSY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEEK ON TAP AS A 
COMPLEX SERIES OF SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL BE 
MOSTLY DRY AS LIMITED MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF IT. MONDAY MAY 
END UP BEING THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK...BUT AS WEDGE HIGH 
PRESSURE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF LATE MONDAY AND SW FLOW PERSISTS 
ALOFT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVE AND BY MONDAY 
NIGHT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP. STILL...THE WETTER PERIOD 
BEGINS TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THESE WILL CREATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY 
HAVE ANOTHER MIXED-PRECIP OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH A WARM LAYER. WILL 
NOT INTRODUCE ANY FROZEN PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST ATTM...BUT DO WANT 
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY AS IT HAS NOW SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS 
FOR MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL OF THESE EVENTS 
THIS WINTER. 

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE 
WED INTO THU. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LOW 
PRESSURE...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE BASED OFF 
PERSISTENCE...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN INTO LATE WEEK...SOME OF WHICH 
MAY BE HEAVY AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS TO THE 
WEST...FUNNELING COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...COLDEST EARLY IN THE 
WEEK WITH SLOW WARMING OCCURRING BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD 
TOWARD EVENING. OVERNIGHT...A MID CLOUD SHELF WILL INTRODUCE ITSELF 
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER. TIME HEIGHT SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE 
INVADING THE REGION AFTER 10Z...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED AT ALL STATIONS 
BY SUNRISE. ATMOSPHERE THANKFULLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN 
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED 
AREA WIDE...WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY SATURDAY 
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DETERIORATING 
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS 
IN PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:15 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT. NO CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT MAJOR UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MODERATE NE WINDS TODAY MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES AS AN IMPULSE
ALOFT EXITS THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION
STATEMENTS APPEAR TO BE NEEDED. NE GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BRIEFLY REINFORCED OVER THE WATERS. NO PCPN
IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN MAY REDUCE LOCAL
VISIBILITIES TO 3NM OR LESS AFTER 400 AM AND INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXPECTED BUT UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF NE WIND- WAVES IN
4-5 SECOND WAVE INTERVALS...AND AND 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIGID...IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT THERMAL-WEAR CAN SAVE A LIFE
IN THE EVENT OF AN OVER-BOARD SITUATION.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS 
SATURDAY...CAUSING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
TO ITS WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST 
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY...BECOMING RATHER 
DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL FALL TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND BECOME 
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT 
SUNDAY IN A WEAK WARM SECTOR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE VERY 
END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AT 10-15 KTS SUNDAY 
NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE WKND WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF 
SATURDAY...WITH 3-5 FT WAVES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS 
THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT EASES...SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT 
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST AT THESE AMPLITUDES ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS VERY 
EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF 
ALONG THE COAST THEREAFTER. THIS CREATES WINDS WHICH WILL VEER FROM 
NW TO NE THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE PERSISTING AT THIS DIRECTION AND 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAVE AMPLITUDES 
WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE 
PROLONGED NE FETCH DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 2-3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL 
RISE STEADILY...BECOMING 4-6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW