642 
FXUS61 KBGM 271321
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SQUALLS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ABRUPTLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
GUSTY WINDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
THE NEW YORK THRUWAY...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...INCLUDING SUBZERO WIND CHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
815 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO KEEP UP WITH DETAILS OF ARCTIC FRONT AND 
ATTENDING DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL NOW PLOWING THROUGH THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE WITH THE
SQUALL. ALL TOLD ONLY AN INCH OR SO ACCUMULATION...BUT COMING DOWN
HEAVILY IN A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF TIME. TEMPERATURE DETAILS ALSO
UPDATED FOR THE EXPECTED DIVE THROUGH THE TEENS LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA. BY 18Z THIS LE BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LOW LVL WIND PROFILE WILL BE
AROUND 270 DEGREES BY 18Z... THEN THE PROFILE WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A 280 DEGREES BY 21Z WHICH WILL FORCE THE BAND FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... HOWEVER THE PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS
270 BY 00Z TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN BAND SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
EVEN THROUGH THE BAND MAY SLIGHTLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY... IT
WILL MAINLY REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD... THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT STORM
WARNING STARTING AT 18Z TODAY THROUGH 17Z TUES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECT TO BE AROUND 7 TO 13 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EST UPDATE...
THE LE SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE CWA BY 18Z
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY OF THIS SECTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE BITTER COLD.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NY WILL BE GUSTY TUES NIGHT SO AN ADDITIONAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM SUNDAY UPDATE... 

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRUNG OUT
FROM NEW ENGLAND SW TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE SW SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. 

NEXT WEEK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. ACTIVE COLD PATTERN WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST FOLLOWED BY SOME
WARMING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. THEY FOLLOWED
EURO ENSEMBLE AS USUAL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. 

THU NGT AND FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH BUT STALLS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. STORMS MOVE ENE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
SNOW SATURDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SLOWLY WARMING THE TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AND NOW AROUND 30. MIXED PRECIP NOT THAT FAR SOUTH SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC FNT NOW ENTERNG THE REGION WILL RAPIDLY REDUCE VSBYS INTO
THE IFR RANGE WITH SNOW SQUALLS OVER A 2 TO 3 HR PD. FLWG THE
FNT...HIPRES WILL BUILD IN AND RETURN MOST OF THE AREA TO VFR.
XCPTN WILL BE AT RME AND SYR WHERE LE WILL DVLP IN THE CAA. SINGLE
BAND WILL GNRLY STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT MAY SLIDE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING IFR CONDS TO SYR AND ESP RME FOR A FEW HRS
ARND 00Z. ELSEWHERE SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BE BRIEF ENUF TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF.

GUSTY WLY WINDS BHD THE FNT IN THE CAA WITH BRING GUSTS TO AND A
BIT OVER 3O KTS AT TIMES LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. 

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO THU MORN...MAINLY VFR.

THU AFTN TO THU NGT...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY 
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY 
     FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST 
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM