885 
FXUS63 KFSD 252130
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND 
SUNDAY...BRINGING UNPLEASANT WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST 
WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH 
DAKOTA AND WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST 
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BAND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL 
MOVING ALONG THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD WILL 
SPREAD INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT 
EASTWARD AS THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES. AFTER SUNSET...STRONGER 
DIV-Q WORKS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS 
STRENGTHENS ALONG AND EAST OF I29. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER THE LIFT 
AND FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL ALLOW THE 
LIGHT SNOWFALL TO QUICKLY END. SNOW WILL PRIMARILY FALL ALONG AND 
EAST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE. WITH MUCH 
DRIER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SNOW WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME 
DEVELOPING...AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SOME 
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG HIGHWAY 14...NEAR THE BUFFALO 
RIDGE AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA. ONE TO 2 INCHES OF 
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...LIKELY HIGHEST NEAR THE 
RIDGE. ELSEWHERE ONLY A FEW TENTHS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST. 

WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND 
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NON DIURNAL AND COULD RISE 
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN HALF. WARMER NEAR SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE SNOW TO VERY BRIEFLY FALL 
AS FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE JAMES RIVER...BUT WITH THE PRECIPITATION 
QUICKLY COMING TO AN END BY THAT TIME...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ICE 
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL 
BECOME QUITE BREEZY HEADING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

A MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SET TO QUICKLY ARRIVE 
ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHTS SYSTEM. WITH STRONG PRESSURE 
RISES...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 OR 
55 MPH LIKELY AT TIMES. STRATUS WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE 
MORNING AND SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW WHICH 
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD LATE MORNING AND END BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT 
MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AS THE BEST LIFT 
AND FORCING SPLITS EAST AND WEST OF THE AREA. BUT COULD SEE UP TO AN 
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH IN THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND A FEW TENTHS 
ELSEWHERE. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE 
FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT FALL TONIGHT. 
EXPECT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES WHERE THE HEAVIEST 
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED - BUFFALO RIDGE AREA INTO THE IOWA LAKES. 
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING...AND ALSO 
ADDED BROOKINGS COUNTY WHERE OVER AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS 
EXPECTED. ALSO UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

AS CONTINUING BLIZZARD AND/OR HIGH WIND CONDITIONS TALL OFF SLOWLY 
SUNDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAKING A STEADY NOSEDIVE...AND 
THE WIND CHILL HAZARD WILL TAKE OVER. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON 
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS TO AVOID THE MULTIPLE HEADLINES...MORE 
MULTIPLE WARNINGS IN FACT. WE WILL BE CONTINUING TO USE THE OTHER 
STATEMENTS AND THE HWO TO EMPHASIZE THE COLD DANGER...THE WORST OF 
WHICH WILL BE AFTER THE BLIZZARD/HIGH WIND TIME AND SEEMS DESTINED 
TO CONTINUE IN SOME FORM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FALLING SNOW SHOULD BE DONE 
WITH AT THE START OF THE EVENING. WHILE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME 
LINGERING AREAS OF HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR...THE 
TREND SHOULD BE FOR THOSE CLOUDS TO DECREASE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH 
APPROACHES AND ARRIVES. AS FOR THE COLD...THERE IS NOT REALLY A BIG 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EFFECT OF THE REAL STRONG WINDS AND THE 15 TO 
20 MPH OR SO WE WILL BE SEEING MONDAY ON THE WIND CHILLS...WHICH IS 
ANOTHER REASON WHY THE WORST OF THAT HAZARD WILL BE AFTER OUR 
INITIAL EVENTS. OF COURSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY 
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AM KEEPING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW 
FOR MONDAY FAR NORTHEAST WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED 2 PLUS INCHES OF NEW 
SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHERE THOSE 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS WILL STILL 
HAVE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD TREND TO FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE 
BITTER COLD. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PASS OVER TUESDAY BUT A WIND 
CHILL PRODUCING BREEZE WILL STILL BE AROUND FROM LOW LEVEL FLOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIVE INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORTHEAST TO 
THE SINGLES BELOW SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN RISE ONLY 5 TO 
10 DEGREES MONDAY...STILL LEAVING DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO HIGHS IN 
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE 
COLDEST TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE BETTER RISE FOR TUESDAY 
AND A WARMING EVENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT 
SNOW IN THE WARMING PATTERN...AND WILL MENTION A LOW CHANCE FOR 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND GRIDS. AS FOR THE 
WARMING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRIEFLY WARM TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE 
ABOVE...20S TO MID 30S...FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED WITH SOME COOLING BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY WAVE...THEN A LITTLE 
WARMING AGAIN. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE OF 
LIGHT SNOW. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY WAVES 
AND THE USUAL TIMING PROBLEMS. AT THIS TIME...NO EXTREME WEATHER IN 
THE FORM OF WINDS...WIND CHILLS...OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR A 
WHILE AFTER THE EARLY WEEK BITTER COLD SLOWLY ABATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE LATE 
THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE FROM 00Z TO 06Z...HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE THROUGH AROUND 09Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS BAND AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AFTER 09Z. NORTHWEST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND COULD TOP AROUND 20 TO 30 KT
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 40 KT AFTER 16Z. BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 SM AT TIMES AS THE WINDS INCREASE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR SDZ038-039-050-052>071.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR SDZ040.

MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR MNZ098.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR IAZ001-012-013-020>022-031-032.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR IAZ002-003-014.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...