990 
FXUS61 KBGM 311140
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 445 AM...SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER GEORGIAN BAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NYS SLIDES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA BRINGING MUCH OF THE AREA SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND
ONE INCH ACROSS THE NRN CWA, LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND A FEW TENTHS ACROSS NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...BEHIND THIS WEAK WAVE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BAND TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
ONONDAGA, MADISON AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BUT THE LATEST SUITE
KEEPS THE BAND ACROSS THE NRN PTN OF ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEN LIFTS IT NORTH WED MORNING. LONG FETCH, DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY AND SNOW RATIOS OF 25/1 WILL RESULT IN SNOW
ACCUMS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE COUNTY. 

A LAKE ERIE BAND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA WITH ACCUMS AROUND ONE INCH LIKELY. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK
FROM THE MID WEST EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THEN OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. AREA WILL RESIDE IN
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AS FEATURE
TRACKS FROM THE MID WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA
REGION. ATTM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE NOT REACHING
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WED AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MODERATE ACCUMS LIKELY. ARCTIC HIGH PRES
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND HIGH SNOW
RATIOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENT SHOULD BE ONGOING THU
NGT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO FRI. THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS STORM...AS THE 12Z EC REMAINS THE MOST
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWEST WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LVL TROUGH AXIS...WHILE
THE GFS/CAN GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...WPC IS LEANING TWDS
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLNS...GIVEN THE PROGGED CANADIAN MARITIME
UPPER-LVL LOW...AND THE CONFLUENT PATN UNDERNEATH IT...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT. EVEN SO...NICE WAA/FGEN FORCING
INTO THU NGT...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF DEFORMATION BAND MECHANICS INTO
EARLY FRI...LIKELY TRANSLATES TO AT LEAST WIDESPREAD ADVSY LVL
SNOW ACCUMS. STAY TUNED...AS MANY DETAILS ARE YET BE IRONED OUT.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY THIS PD IS THE ARCTIC AMS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE
SWD INTO CNY/NE PA FRI INTO SAT. IF ANYTHING...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED EVEN COLDER IN RECENT RUNS...WITH BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOWING
TEMPS NOT MUCH ABV ZERO FRI...THEN WELL BLO ZERO FRI NGT/EARLY
SAT. WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS ON FRI...WITH WELL
BLO ZERO READINGS FRI NGT/SAT MRNG...SO WE DIDN'T MAKE MANY CHGS
HERE. WE DID NUDGE TEMPS LWR LTR IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

MAINLY DRY WX IS STILL FORESEEN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...WHEN THE DEEPEST COLD WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE. FROM SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM SHRT WV/FRNTL
PASSAGES ARE LIKELY...SO WE'VE JUST GONE WITH A GENERIC CHC OF
SHSN/FLRYS FOR NOW. AS WE DRAW CLOSER IN TIME...HOPEFULLY WE'LL
GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT LES BANDS MAY SET
UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL FEATURE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR NORTH OF THE THRUWAY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME HEAVY SNOW
TO THE RME TAF SITE... OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
10 KTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR/IFR SHSN IN KSYR/KRME...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WED NGT-THU NGT...IFR SNOW LIKELY AREA-WIDE.

FRI...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHSN.

FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MSE/PVN