000 
FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF SET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013/ 

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013/ 

SHORT TERM...
QUIET FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS 
IN PLACE ALOFT.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE 
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES TO 
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR MOST 
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WIND 
WILL GRADUALLY SWING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY 
TUESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE 
AREA.  A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING A BIT BUT WE 
STILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY AFTN WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS /15-20 
MPH/ WILL CAUSE FOR THE CONTINUANCE OF ABOVE NORM TEMPS WED AND 
THU...AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE DIVING SSE 
ALONG THE WRN CONUS CONUS SHORE TOMORROW NIGHT TO NEAR THE BAJA OF 
CA BY FRI WHERE IT IS PROJECTED TO CLOSE OFF. THUS FLOW ALOFT WILL 
VEER TO THE SW. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A COLD FRONT IS 
PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI...LEADING TO THE 
ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR AND BACK TO NEAR NORM TEMPS /40S AND 50S/. 
THIS FRONT IS SHOWN NOT TO MAKE MUCH OF A SRN LATITUDINAL PUSH AS IT 
BRIEFLY MOVES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BACK 
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT...AND HENCE TRANSPORT A 
BIT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 
INCH/. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UA LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT 
TRANSLATES ENE ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND FAR SW TX FRI NIGHT-SAT...TO 
FINALLY EAST OF THE CWA SUN. THE INCREASE IN UL SUPPORT COMBINED 
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO -RA FRI NIGHT-SAT...BUT THE 
PRESENCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT /A BIT COLDER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS ONE/ WILL FILTER IN 850 MB TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 
DEGREES C...LEADING TO PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING A RAIN AND/OR 
SNOW PROFILE. 

LATEST MODEL RUNS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...SHOWS THE UA DISTURBANCE 
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE CWA LATE SAT EVENING/NIGHT 
/QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/. AS SUCH...THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR 
THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESPOND TO THE CAA WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE BEST 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND THUS LESSER CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP. THE 
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS PERSISTENTLY SHOWING A TAD SLOWER 
SOLUTION /EAST OF THE CWA LATE SAT NIGHT/ WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP 
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE 
TENACIOUS ECMWF AND THUS MAINTAIN A -RA AND/OR -SN MENTION SAT 
NIGHT-EARLY SUN MORNING WITH NIL POPS BY THE AFTN. EARLY NEXT 
WEEK... FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE NW AS UA RIDGING BECOMES 
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS. SFC RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED COLDER 
AIR SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECUPERATE FROM 
THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO THE 50S BY MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  63  28  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TULIA         27  62  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     27  64  29  67  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     24  64  30  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       23  65  31  69  38 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   24  64  33  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    23  65  31  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     32  64  31  71  38 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SPUR          33  64  34  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     35  65  33  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07