000 
FXHW60 PHFO 110209
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH LEEWARD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES 
AND CLOUDINESS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT 
AND UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE RAIN AND BRING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY...THEN VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE 
ALSO UNTIL SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE 
WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAIN 
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE TOMORROW MORNING.

ONCE THE TRADES WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A HYBRID TRADE / 
CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE BIG 
ISLAND BLOCKING THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. LEEWARD 
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WITH CONTINUED STABILITY ALOFT WILL MAKE THE 
WEATHER LIMITED TO CLOUD BUILD UPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE 
AFTERNOONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE SHOULD STAY UNDER SOUTHEAST 
FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSED ON THOSE RESPECTIVE FACING 
SLOPES. THAT BEING SAID...THE OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE 
MINIMAL GIVEN THE STABILITY AND EXPECTED DRIER THAN NORMAL FETCH.

THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE INDUCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR 
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE RE-ENERGIZED BY AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
ALOFT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ONTO KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING 
WHILE A COLD POOL ALOFT DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY MORNING 
INTO MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH 
SWINGS THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW PINCHING OFF 
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...THEN DIGGING SOUTH OVER HAWAII MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL BE 
EAST OF THE STATE BY THEN...THE LOW WILL PULL VERY COLD AIR ALOFT 
ONTO THE ISLANDS AND MAY RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL MUCH THAT 
CAN CHANGE IN THE MODEL RUNS AT THIS POINT SO NOT PUTTING MUCH 
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING YET.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH 
TONIGHT. WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS 
THE STATE...LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ON 
WINDWARD SLOPES. AN AIRMET FOR INTERMITTENT MODERATE LOW LEVEL 
TURBULENCE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT.


&&

.MARINE...
MIXED WNW/NNW SWELL WILL PRODUCE 6-10 FT SURF ALONG NORTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL EASING TREND WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE NW SWELL BUILDS RAPIDLY
POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 15-18 FT BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. ALSO A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE
MODEST SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY TRADES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG 
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...JACOBSON