000 
FXUS64 KHUN 081138 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS 

&& 

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S WITH LOW 
30 DEWPOINTS. RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY. EXPECT THE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN. WILL KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID TODAY AND TONIGHT BASED
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GOOD SW FLOW. ALSO DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN...WENT AHEAD AND LOWER TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE MOS
VALUES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY TODAY THRU TONIGHT...MAINLY
ARND 40.

MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES TRYING TO PUSH INTO NERN AL
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...WITH 8H WINDS ARND 50 KT. AS A RESULT THERE MAY
BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED TSRA TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF I65. HOWEVER SINCE
THE INSTABILITIES ARE VERY WEAK...TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S AND A GOOD
CHC OF RAIN...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN ZONES/GRIDS FOR NOW.
ATTM THE BETTER CHC OF A FEW STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER SRN AL.

THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM TONIGHT THRU MONDAY
MRNG WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AFTN AS A CDFNT
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. NOW THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST...IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY MRNG WITH A SHOT OF PCPN. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING
DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I65.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OVER NW AL ARND 09Z THRU 12Z TUESDAY. THEN
A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THRU 18Z. AFTER 18Z THE
UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH
IT...ACCORDING TO NAM AND ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH 
WARMER AFTN TEMPS...ARND 50. HOWEVER MRNG LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...BETWEEN 25 AND 30.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ANOTHER TROF WILL BRING A CHC OF MORE RAIN OVER THE
TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IFR CONDS FOR THE MOST PART ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF -RA/RA CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS.
ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW LATER TODAY. THERES NOTHING
REALLY IN THE CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION TO BREAK THIS SOMEWHAT
STAGNANT PATTERN...WITH CIG HEIGHTS LINGERING AOA 500-700 FT UNDER A
PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW REGIME.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE 
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.