000 
FXUS64 KMOB 072208
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...COOL/COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WILL 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES 
THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. 
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH A STRONG 
INVERSION JUST ABOVE 950 MB...WHICH HAS KEPT THE LOW CLOUDS AND 
CEILINGS IN PLACE ALL DAY. THIS PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...SO 
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. AS SUCH...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 
40S NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. 
STILL COULD SEE SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT 
RAIN...AND MAINLY OVER INTERIOR ZONES. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WHICH 
IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD 
AND INTO THE FCST AREA BY DAYS END WITH LOLVL WINDS BECOMING MORE 
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY...WARMING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING CLOUDY 
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN (GREATEST CHANCES OVER NORTHWESTERN HALF OF 
FCST AREA). EXPECT SAME GENERAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALIGNMENT 
SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTHWEST TO 
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL SUNDAY WOULD RANGE
FROM 3/4 INCH TO AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. 12/DS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE US
AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEST OF 90W WILL PERSIST WHILE A SERIES OF FLOW
PERTURBATIONS TRAVEL ALONG THE WESTERLIES. A DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND UPPER
TROUGH...WITH CONGRUENT SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
COAHUILA STATE IN MEXICO. STARTING OUT...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF VARYING BY LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES WITH VERY 
STABLE CONDITIONS...CAPE << 400 AND LI +1 TO +2.  

DESPITE A VERY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT AND STEEP TEMPERATURE 
GRADIENT...WE EXPECT THE FRONT WILL HAVE BACKED UP AS A WARM FRONT 
WELL NORTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE 
GULF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO 
FLATTEN OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE 
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY WEST OF I-65 AND CHANCES ELSEWHERE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE TRANSITION FROM AN ISENTROPIC FLOW
REGIME TO A WARM SECTOR AS SB CAPES CREEP UP TO 1000 AND LI GETS
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ABOUT THE SAME BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT AS IT IS AHEAD OF SAME. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WOULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES WEST OF
I-65. AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE. EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE 
RAIN COMING TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE 
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL FINALLY RETURN 
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WHILE IT 
STILL APPEARS THE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST PAST MID 
WEEK...THERE IS NOT MUCH MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. SO WE COULD 
SEE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. 
ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL 
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN RETURNING JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
 
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS JUST SOUTH 
OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND THEN LIFT BACK 
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW 
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE OF AN EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS 
EVENING... UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE 
CAUTION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST 
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...WITH MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE 
WEEK. 12/DS 

&&

.AVIATION (08/00Z ISSUANCE)...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
FCST PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE 
EASTERLY BY 09/00Z. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      44  63  63  73  55 /  20  60  40  60  40 
PENSACOLA   48  70  65  75  63 /  20  30  30  60  40 
DESTIN      56  70  65  74  66 /  20  20  20  50  40 
EVERGREEN   47  67  61  74  54 /  30  50  40  70  40 
WAYNESBORO  43  54  52  63  45 /  40  80  70  70  50 
CAMDEN      44  60  56  68  47 /  40  70  60  80  50 
CRESTVIEW   47  72  60  77  60 /  20  20  30  60  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$