000 
FXUS63 KBIS 061837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BENEATH AN
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

LOW CLOUD SATELLITE BAND REVEALS SOME LAKE EFFECT STRATUS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO
BISMARCK. ADDED CLOUDS AND FLURRIES THROUGH NOON TODAY THERE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES AND CLEAR AND IT ITS QUITE COLD. THERE ARE
SCATTERED AREAS AROUND 40 BELOW WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING...ACROSS
THE WEST. SEE THESE COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR 40 BELOW LASTING
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE WE ARE IN A HIGH END WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM TO 10 TO 2O
BELOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HETTINGER HAS
FALLEN TO 23 BELOW. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE
PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SPOTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 40 BELOW BUT AREAL EXTEND IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH FOR A WIND CHILL WARNING. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW AREAS OF
STRATUS SHOWING UP. ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. THESE
CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE BISMARCK MANDAN AREA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THIS MORNING FROM HAZEN TO CENTER AND BISMARCK MANDAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHICH GOES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING MAY
HAVE WIND CHILLS OF -40 F TO -45 F. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY BE
FOR A FEW HOURS AND DOES NOT WARRANT MULTIPLE HEADLINES CHANGES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER SUB-ZERO DAY IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURE-
WISE TODAY...WITH A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE
UTILIZED...MINUS THE WARM NAM/MET. WIND CHILLS VALUES OF -25 F TO
-35 F WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS EMANATING OUT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS RIDGE AXIS DOES
PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THUS...THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST IN THE -20 TO
-25 F RANGE WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL...STRONGER WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE
FALL TO THE -15 F TO -20 F RANGE. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE 00 UTC STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...MODIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FOR THE SLIGHTLY WARMER DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIXING.
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OF -40 F OR COLDER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL LET FURTHER SHIFTS EVALUATE IF AN
UPGRADE WILL BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE 
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A 
STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT THIS TIME... 
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY END THE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN IS COMPLETE...WE WILL 
SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WITH BRIEF WARM-UPS 
FOLLOWED BY SHOTS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS WILL 
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY SOUTHERN 
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY. THIS IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SUNDAY 
NIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY MORNING.

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN ANOTHER BRIEF WARM-UP LATE IN THE WORK 
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE ONE MORE COLD HIGH 
SETTLES OVER THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

WE WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE 
MODIFIED SOMEWHAT AND COLD SPELLS WILL BE SHORTER IN DURATION. THUS 
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS ARE LESS CERTAIN BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT 
WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION CONTINUES TO BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR 
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA