000 
FXUS63 KOAX 032135
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE....SPECIFICALLY JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS
AS OF 21Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRANSLATES THIS FEATURE ALONG
THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO EASTERN IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR DROPPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS COLD AIR
DIPS SOUTH...MID LEVEL FORCING CO-LOCATED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
KNOX/CEDAR/ANTELOPE/PIERCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION...THE BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO VERIFY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE TRACK DECIDED TO UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS KNOX
COUNTY...AND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TRANSITIONS BELOW FREEZING SOME
ICE PELLETS/SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN ALREADY REPORTED
AT WAYNE. OPTED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS
PROFILES SUGGEST ITS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. FURTHER SOUTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MEAGER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COUNTIES IT APPEARS FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND ICE IN THE CLOUD. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER THROUGH RUSH HOUR AND POSSIBLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT ENOUGH
TO END ANY DRIZZLE CONCERNS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THOUGH
VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH ZERO EACH
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WINTER STORM OVER
KANSAS AND MISSOURI...FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

PEARSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE REGION COLD THROUGHOUT THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SERIES OF 
LITTLE IMPULSES TO THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR 
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS 
LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS TIME.

BETTER FORCING COMES INTO PLAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FORCING 
FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO. IN 
ADDITION...THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 150KT 300 MB JET WILL BE PASSING 
OVERHEAD PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE 
POPS GOING AND THAT MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP WITH LATER FORECAST IF 
THE FORCING IS STILL LOOKING STRONG. A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH WILL 
SINK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PROGGED 
850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -20C TO -25C. 

KERN

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE FILTERING INTO ERN NEB THIS AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CNTRL IA TO
CNTRL KS. ALL THIS IN PART TO DEEP SFC LOW SITUATED OVER OK. OBS
ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE LLVL MOISTURE EXTENDED INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. AT THIS POINT...LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FROM MVFR TO IFR MAINLY AROUND 12Z WED MORNING...WITH
-SN DEVELOPING AT KOFK. MEANWHILE AT KOMA...ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY
LOOKS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOR A BRIEF -FZDZ EVENT BTWN 11Z-14Z THEN
POSSIBLE -SN BTWN 14Z-16Z. OVERALL THOUGH..CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN AT
EITHER KOFK AND KOMA ARE SMALL.

FOR KLNK...AT THIS POINT APPEARS THAT KLNK WILL BE SPARED ANY
PCPN WITH JUST LOW CIGS PREVAILING THRU WED MORNING.&&

DEE

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$