National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBGM
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBGM
Product Timestamp: 2013-12-03 18:16 UTC
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000 FXUS61 KBGM 031816 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 116 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE CATSKILLS IN NEW YORK TODAY, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A WARM FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH MILDER AIR AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM UPDATE... YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO RMV PCPN MENTION AND MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT NOON TDA. LOW CLDS LKLY TO HANG ARND LONGER THAN EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE WHERE BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO DVLP. LOW STRATUS IS NOW SPREADING NORTH THRU THE FINGER LKS INTO WRN NY ATTM AND EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO BE THE NORM ACRS THE SRN TIER AND WRN CATS MOST OF THE DAY. THUS, HV LWRD TEMPS BY 1-2 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTN. PREV DISCOS BLO... 8 AM UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS WITH SOME LOCALES LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. HWVR, DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT (I.E. HIGHER TERRAIN VS VLY LOCATIONS). CLRNG IS SEEN OUT TWD KBUF BUT CWA APPEARS TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER STRATUS LYR. AREAS OF DENSE FOG LKLY DUE TO SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLY A BREAK OR TWO IN THE CLDS OVRHD CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO DWPT VALUES. EVIDENCED BY KRME CLRNG OUT AND DROPPING FM 31F TO 28F WHILE KSYR IS RISING AT THE SAME TIME. STAGNANT PATTERN APPEARS AS THO IT WL CONTINUE THRU TDA BFR FLOW KICKS IN IN RESPONSE TO HIPRES BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SFC WMFNT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH. NO OTHER CHGS AT THIS TIME. 6 AM UPDATE... PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS TRICKY...AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN FINESSED ACCORDINGLY FOR LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS PATCHY DRIZZLE ON FRONT END...AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ON BACK END. PATCHY FOG ALSO TO LINGER A BIT INTO THE MORNING ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOW WANING AND WILL EXIT NORTHEAST SHORTLY. PRECIPITATION ALREADY DONE WEST OF A SHERBURNE- BINGHAMTON-TOWANDA LINE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF THAT LINE TO COVER LOCALIZED PATCHY ICE CONCERNS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. MESONET AND ASOS SITES INDICATE THAT THESE PATCHY ICE CONCERNS ARE PROBABLY MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALIZED. WHILE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MAINLY SNOW...MOISTURE LAYER IS ALSO GETTING SHALLOWER WITH TIME SO ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AS THE PRECIPITATION WANES...WHICH WILL END UP FAVORING DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST...MID MORNING ONWARD SHOULD BE DRY AREAWIDE WITH ALSO LOSS OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN SOME SUN BREAKING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT A MID DECK WILL MOVE BACK IN COURTESY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTER MAINLY UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS TODAY...FIGURING ON A LOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OCCURRING FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LEVELING OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS DAWN AS CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 415 AM UPDATE... WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY YET WITH CLOUDS SINCE WARM FRONT WILL BE MATERIALIZING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS MORE RETURN FLOW AND PUSHES WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. A WELL MARKED WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE WSW FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD SOME SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH TOO MILD FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO WESTERN QUEBEC. MODELS AGREE ON HOLDING OFF PASSAGE OF ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST LATER THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE PACE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGHS THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMEST SINCE MID NOVEMBER...MAINLY 50S. WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST WITH PACE OF THE COLD FRONT...POTENTIAL SHOT OF RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE INBOUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA...THUS LIKELY POPS PLACED THERE BY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH ON STRONGER WAVE PRESSING BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE AT LEAST THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT HANGING UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVES WILL BE YIELDING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE PROGRESSED...THOUGH SOME SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE STARTING TO MIX WITH THE RAIN IN AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL NY BY THEN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OVERALL PTRN SHOWS A DEEP POS TILTED UPR TROF DVLPNG OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE U.S.. S/WVS EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROF WILL BE THE MAIN WX MAKERS THIS PD. TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME RNG DIFFICULT AT BEST...BUT GNRL MDL AGREEMENT THAT ONE WILL BE EXITING FRI NGT...WITH THE NXT APRCHNG IN THE SUN NGT/MON TIME FRAME. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CLDS WITH IFR/MVFR REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CNTRL NY AND NRN PA...BUT SOME EROSION IS OCCURRING ACRS WRN NY. COMPLICATED TAF FCST...BUT OVERALL XPCT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL ACRS THE SRN TIER THIS AFTN AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVRNGT PD (ITH/BGM LIKELY TO SEE ALT MIN CONDITIONS). AT RME AND SYR VFR THIS AFTN AS CIGS RISE... BUT XPCT THEM TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RNG TNGT (SNOW COVER MAY AID FOG DVLPMNT TNGT WITH LGT WINDS). AT AVP...ALSO XPCT POTNL FOR MVFR THIS EVNG AS LOW LVL FLOW BRIEFLY GOES NWLY. POTNL FOR SOME VFY LGT SCT PCPN TNGT BUT ODDS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFSWINDS L&V...BECMG SELY 5-10 KTS ON WED MRNG.. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY MVFR CNTRL NY. WED NGT TO FRI NGT...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN. SAT...MVFR CNTRL NY. SUN...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN SHORT TERM...MDP