AFOS product AFDBGM
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBGM
Product Timestamp: 2013-12-03 18:16 UTC

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FXUS61 KBGM 031816
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE CATSKILLS IN NEW YORK TODAY, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
ALONG THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A WARM FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH MILDER AIR AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO RMV PCPN MENTION AND MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG
THROUGH ABOUT NOON TDA. LOW CLDS LKLY TO HANG ARND LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE WHERE BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO
DVLP. LOW STRATUS IS NOW SPREADING NORTH THRU THE FINGER LKS INTO
WRN NY ATTM AND EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO BE THE NORM ACRS THE SRN
TIER AND WRN CATS MOST OF THE DAY. THUS, HV LWRD TEMPS BY 1-2
DEGREES FOR THIS AFTN.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

8 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS WITH SOME LOCALES
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. HWVR, DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT (I.E. HIGHER TERRAIN VS VLY LOCATIONS). CLRNG IS SEEN
OUT TWD KBUF BUT CWA APPEARS TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER STRATUS LYR.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG LKLY DUE TO SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLY A BREAK OR
TWO IN THE CLDS OVRHD CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO DWPT VALUES.
EVIDENCED BY KRME CLRNG OUT AND DROPPING FM 31F TO 28F WHILE KSYR
IS RISING AT THE SAME TIME. STAGNANT PATTERN APPEARS AS THO IT WL
CONTINUE THRU TDA BFR FLOW KICKS IN IN RESPONSE TO HIPRES BUILDING
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SFC WMFNT BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH. 

NO OTHER CHGS AT THIS TIME.

6 AM UPDATE... 
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS TRICKY...AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN FINESSED
ACCORDINGLY FOR LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS PATCHY
DRIZZLE ON FRONT END...AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ON BACK END. PATCHY
FOG ALSO TO LINGER A BIT INTO THE MORNING ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS.
ASSOCIATED WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOW WANING AND WILL EXIT NORTHEAST
SHORTLY. PRECIPITATION ALREADY DONE WEST OF A SHERBURNE-
BINGHAMTON-TOWANDA LINE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF THAT LINE TO COVER LOCALIZED PATCHY ICE
CONCERNS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. MESONET AND ASOS
SITES INDICATE THAT THESE PATCHY ICE CONCERNS ARE PROBABLY MAINLY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALIZED. WHILE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MAINLY SNOW...MOISTURE LAYER IS ALSO
GETTING SHALLOWER WITH TIME SO ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION WILL BECOME 
MORE DIFFICULT AS THE PRECIPITATION WANES...WHICH WILL END UP 
FAVORING DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK WAVE LIFT NORTHEAST...MID MORNING
ONWARD SHOULD BE DRY AREAWIDE WITH ALSO LOSS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN SOME SUN BREAKING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH BY EARLY
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT A MID DECK WILL MOVE BACK IN
COURTESY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTER MAINLY UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S FOR HIGHS TODAY...FIGURING ON A LOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S OCCURRING FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LEVELING OR
EVEN SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS DAWN AS CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...WILL KEEP
WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY YET WITH CLOUDS SINCE WARM FRONT WILL BE
MATERIALIZING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE
40S AREAWIDE.

CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS MORE RETURN FLOW AND PUSHES WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD. A WELL MARKED WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
MAY YIELD SOME SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH TOO MILD FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
TRAVEL FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO WESTERN QUEBEC. MODELS
AGREE ON HOLDING OFF PASSAGE OF ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT UNTIL AT
LEAST LATER THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THE PACE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGHS THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMEST
SINCE MID NOVEMBER...MAINLY 50S.

WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST WITH PACE OF THE COLD
FRONT...POTENTIAL SHOT OF RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS DISPLACED
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RAIN WILL
BE INBOUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA...THUS LIKELY
POPS PLACED THERE BY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THOUGH ON STRONGER WAVE PRESSING BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE AT LEAST THE
SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT HANGING UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...BUT THE WAVES WILL BE YIELDING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HAVE PROGRESSED...THOUGH SOME SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE
STARTING TO MIX WITH THE RAIN IN AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL NY BY
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
OVERALL PTRN SHOWS A DEEP POS TILTED UPR TROF DVLPNG OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE U.S..
S/WVS EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROF WILL BE THE MAIN WX
MAKERS THIS PD. TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME RNG
DIFFICULT AT BEST...BUT GNRL MDL AGREEMENT THAT ONE WILL BE
EXITING FRI NGT...WITH THE NXT APRCHNG IN THE SUN NGT/MON TIME
FRAME. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEEKS. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLDS WITH IFR/MVFR REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CNTRL NY AND NRN
PA...BUT SOME EROSION IS OCCURRING ACRS WRN NY. COMPLICATED TAF
FCST...BUT OVERALL XPCT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL ACRS THE SRN TIER
THIS AFTN AND FOR MUCH OF THE OVRNGT PD (ITH/BGM LIKELY TO SEE ALT
MIN CONDITIONS). AT RME AND SYR VFR THIS AFTN AS CIGS RISE...
BUT XPCT THEM TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RNG TNGT (SNOW COVER MAY AID
FOG DVLPMNT TNGT WITH LGT WINDS). AT AVP...ALSO XPCT POTNL FOR
MVFR THIS EVNG AS LOW LVL FLOW BRIEFLY GOES NWLY.  POTNL FOR SOME VFY LGT
SCT PCPN TNGT BUT ODDS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFSWINDS
L&V...BECMG SELY 5-10 KTS ON WED MRNG..

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY MVFR CNTRL NY.

WED NGT TO FRI NGT...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

SAT...MVFR CNTRL NY. 

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP