000 
FXUS63 KICT 021739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

FOG VISIBILITIES ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AND 
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE ONE MILE IN MOST LOCALES BY 11 AM. SO
PLAN TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL BE A VERY SHORT TERM CONCERN... ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE DENSE FOG SPLIT THE ICT METRO AREA...AS WEAK SW WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME DRIER AIR ERODING THE FOG ALONG THE NW EDGE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF ICT. EXPECTING THIS FOG TO BE SLOW TO BURN OFF FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THIS AREA. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...THE REGION WILL SEE
A MILD DAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHES TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON TUE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE AFTN. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
DIFFICULT AS ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN WHILE THE
GFS/NAM-WRF BRINGS IT THROUGH FASTER...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS FALLING TUE AFTN TEMPS FOR CEN KS.
SLOWER ARRIVAL WILL MEAN A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS SRN KS DUE
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.

ENJOY TODAY AND EARLY TUE...BECAUSE WINTER ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. EXPECT STRONG BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVE.

THE COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW AND COLD DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH FREEZING ACROSS CEN
KS...AND POSSIBLY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MIDDLE 30S IN SRN KS.
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS CEN
KS LATE WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BY EARLY THU.

KETCHAM 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD AIR WILL
STICK AROUND FOR AN EXTENDED VISIT FOR THU INTO FRI AND FOR THAT
MATTER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE 
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT 
INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. COLD NATURE OF THIS 
AIRMASS WILL MAKE THIS A SLAM DUNK PRECIP TYPE FORECAST...WITH 
PRECIP ALL SNOW. DO NOT SEE ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY 
FOR BANDED SNOW TO DEVELOP AS WIDESPREAD LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST 
OF THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MAIN 
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...FOR AN EXTENDED 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD 
OF LIGHT SNOW. WITH THIS KIND OF DURATION...COULD CERTAINLY SEE 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH SOLID 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL NUMBERS 
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.  

RETURN FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER 
LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL.

KETCHAM    

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

AREAS OF LINGERING IFR STRATUS/FOG VSBYS WILL BURN OFF/DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. 
HOWEVER LINGERING SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/EAST OF 
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE MAY PROMOTE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MVFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG VSBYS AT KCNU 
AND KICT...THOUGH SOME REFINEMENT IS LIKELY WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU 
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH THE IMPACT OF THE ARCTIC COLD 
FRONT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  37  57  28 /   0   0   0  10 
HUTCHINSON      65  35  55  25 /   0   0   0  10 
NEWTON          64  37  55  26 /   0   0   0  10 
ELDORADO        63  39  57  29 /   0   0   0  10 
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  38  61  31 /   0   0   0  10 
RUSSELL         67  33  48  22 /   0   0   0  10 
GREAT BEND      67  32  50  21 /   0   0   0  10 
SALINA          65  35  52  23 /   0   0   0  10 
MCPHERSON       65  35  54  24 /   0   0   0  10 
COFFEYVILLE     62  42  63  36 /   0   0   0  10 
CHANUTE         60  40  61  32 /   0   0   0  10 
IOLA            60  41  61  33 /   0   0   0  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    61  41  62  34 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$